Summary. The European Union imported 1,624,707 tonnes of polypropylene (HS 390210) from outside the bloc in the twelve months to August 2026, 7.6% more than a year earlier, at an average EUR 1,154 per tonne, 0.3% less. The average conceals the year: the monthly import unit value fell to EUR 966 in February 2026 and closed at EUR 1,418 in August, a 46.8% reset. The tonnage came from different countries: Saudi Arabia supplied 294,810 tonnes in January–August, 104,741 fewer than a year earlier; Kazakhstan 110,155, 76,910 more; China 71,335, 42,166 more. Europe’s net import gap widened to 650,061 tonnes in eight months from 508,979, while 965,000 tonnes a year of European PP capacity was counted as closed, idled or earmarked since 2024.
Data updated: 2026-11-05
Latest 12 months: 7.6% more tonnes at a flat average price
Table 1 covers September 2025 to August 2026 for HS 390210, EU27 trade with non-EU partners, from Eurostat Comext DS-045409 (refreshed 16 October 2026). Unit values are value divided by net mass — a border ratio, not a market price.
| Month | Imports (t) | Import value (EUR m) | Import unit value (EUR/t) | Exports (t) | Export value (EUR m) | Export unit value (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09 | 122,719 | 133.0 | 1,084 | 69,039 | 92.5 | 1,340 |
| 2025-10 | 121,115 | 126.7 | 1,046 | 67,668 | 86.1 | 1,273 |
| 2025-11 | 128,576 | 132.0 | 1,027 | 55,256 | 71.7 | 1,297 |
| 2025-12 | 120,512 | 117.4 | 974 | 51,220 | 65.6 | 1,280 |
| 2026-01 | 127,503 | 123.7 | 970 | 56,081 | 73.4 | 1,309 |
| 2026-02 | 119,844 | 115.8 | 966 | 58,721 | 73.7 | 1,256 |
| 2026-03 | 157,133 | 153.3 | 976 | 63,636 | 84.9 | 1,334 |
| 2026-04 | 154,874 | 170.0 | 1,098 | 51,767 | 84.3 | 1,628 |
| 2026-05 | 136,539 | 176.0 | 1,289 | 53,381 | 92.8 | 1,739 |
| 2026-06 | 152,820 | 223.4 | 1,462 | 64,024 | 117.8 | 1,840 |
| 2026-07 | 159,026 | 227.5 | 1,431 | 63,743 | 106.4 | 1,669 |
| 2026-08 | 124,047 | 175.9 | 1,418 | 70,372 | 109.1 | 1,551 |
| Total | 1,624,707 | 1,874.7 | 1,154 | 724,907 | 1,058.3 | 1,460 |
Monthly imports ran from 119,844 tonnes in February 2026 to 159,026 in July, around an average of 135,392. The quarterly blocks describe it better: 372,410 tonnes at EUR 1,052 in September–November 2025, 367,859 at EUR 970 in December–February, 448,546 at EUR 1,113 in March–May, and 435,893 at EUR 1,438 across June–August 2026.
Exports fell to 724,907 tonnes at EUR 1,460 from 763,863 tonnes at EUR 1,429: 5.1% less volume and 2.1% more per tonne. The net import gap widened to 899,800 tonnes from 746,642, an increase of 20.5%.
Analysis. The twelve-month average — EUR 1,154, down 0.3% — is the least useful number in this table for anyone pricing a contract. It was flat because a soft first half and a hard second half cancelled out. A buyer indexing to a rolling annual average in August 2026 was paying for a market that no longer existed.
The annual record: three years of growth in the import book
Table 2 aggregates the same series to calendar years; 2026 is January–August.
| Period | Imports (t) | Import unit value (EUR/t) | Exports (t) | Export unit value (EUR/t) | Net balance (t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1,366,977 | 1,130 | 1,031,658 | 1,253 | −335,319 |
| 2020 | 1,342,348 | 943 | 1,187,096 | 1,076 | −155,252 |
| 2021 | 1,766,155 | 1,395 | 997,457 | 1,471 | −768,697 |
| 2022 | 1,503,806 | 1,572 | 847,527 | 1,717 | −656,279 |
| 2023 | 1,305,305 | 1,172 | 766,722 | 1,434 | −538,583 |
| 2024 | 1,421,857 | 1,180 | 802,053 | 1,456 | −619,805 |
| 2025 | 1,516,624 | 1,107 | 757,905 | 1,383 | −758,719 |
| 2025 Jan–Aug | 1,023,702 | 1,143 | 514,723 | 1,424 | −508,979 |
| 2026 Jan–Aug | 1,131,785 | 1,207 | 481,724 | 1,541 | −650,061 |
Extra-EU imports bottomed at 1,305,305 tonnes in 2023, then rose 8.9% in 2024, 6.7% in 2025 and 10.6% in the first eight months of 2026. Exports went the other way, from 1,187,096 tonnes in 2020 to 757,905 in 2025, a 36.2% fall, and were 6.4% lower again in January–August 2026. The net deficit went from 155,252 tonnes in 2020 to 758,719 in 2025, and stood at 650,061 tonnes after eight months of 2026.
2025 was the year the bloc bought 6.7% more and paid the same for it: import value was EUR 1,679.5 million against EUR 1,678.2 million in 2024, and the unit value fell to EUR 1,107, the lowest since 2020. 2026 has reversed the price half of that.
Analysis. Europe’s polypropylene balance has been rebuilt around imports rather than around a cycle. The bloc imported twice what it exported in 2025, against 1.1 times in 2020; in the eight months of 2026 the ratio is 2.3. That is a structural position rather than a cycle.
Who supplies Europe: Saudi Arabia loses 105,000 tonnes, Kazakhstan triples
Table 3 covers the twelve largest origins; shares are on the 1,131,785-tonne extra-EU import book of January–August 2026.
| Origin | 2024 (t) | 2025 (t) | Jan–Aug 2025 (t) | Jan–Aug 2026 (t) | Share 2026 | Unit value 2026 (EUR/t) | Unit value Jan–Aug 2025 (EUR/t) | Volume change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 528,092 | 565,561 | 399,551 | 294,810 | 26.0% | 1,014 | 1,019 | -26.2% |
| Korea | 204,737 | 243,225 | 158,391 | 183,487 | 16.2% | 1,208 | 1,250 | +15.8% |
| Kazakhstan | 26,317 | 70,357 | 33,245 | 110,155 | 9.7% | 1,128 | 951 | +231.3% |
| United Kingdom | 140,276 | 144,755 | 95,664 | 109,203 | 9.6% | 1,469 | 1,374 | +14.2% |
| Vietnam | 76,461 | 81,738 | 51,965 | 92,078 | 8.1% | 1,179 | 1,061 | +77.2% |
| China | 22,602 | 44,170 | 29,169 | 71,335 | 6.3% | 1,288 | 1,405 | +144.6% |
| Israel | 66,864 | 55,487 | 42,716 | 46,408 | 4.1% | 1,346 | 1,253 | +8.6% |
| Egypt | 71,979 | 60,462 | 40,019 | 44,288 | 3.9% | 1,400 | 1,024 | +10.7% |
| South Africa | 61,965 | 55,915 | 42,114 | 30,069 | 2.7% | 1,095 | 965 | -28.6% |
| United States | 63,104 | 40,602 | 27,860 | 26,505 | 2.3% | 1,490 | 1,659 | -4.9% |
| Canada | 12,469 | 23,466 | 12,641 | 20,953 | 1.9% | 1,138 | 967 | +65.8% |
| Türkiye | 25,996 | 23,289 | 15,288 | 17,823 | 1.6% | 1,419 | 1,258 | +16.6% |
| Other origins | 120,998 | 107,597 | 75,078 | 84,670 | 7.5% | 1,344 | — | — |
| Total extra-EU | 1,421,857 | 1,516,624 | 1,023,702 | 1,131,785 | 100.0% | 1,207 | 1,143 | +10.6% |
Saudi Arabia is still the largest origin, at 294,810 tonnes and 26.0% of the book, but it shipped 399,551 tonnes in the same months of 2025 and 565,561 across the full year: its eight-month share fell from 39.0% to 26.0%. Korea added 15.8% to 183,487 tonnes. The lane that changed most is Kazakhstan — 26,317 tonnes in 2024, 70,357 in 2025 and 110,155 in January–August 2026, against 33,245 a year earlier, a 3.3-fold increase that took it from 3.2% to 9.7% of the book.
China more than doubled to 71,335 tonnes from 29,169, Vietnam rose 77.2% to 92,078 and Canada 65.8% to 20,953. The lanes that shrank were Saudi Arabia (−26.2%), South Africa (−28.6%) and the United States (−4.9%). The two largest origins supplied 54.5% a year ago and 42.3% now.
Analysis. The substitution was not a price arbitrage. The 2026 unit values put Oman at EUR 996, Saudi Arabia at 1,014 and South Africa at 1,095 at the cheap end, and the United Kingdom at 1,469 and the United States at 1,490 at the dear end. Every lane that replaced Saudi tonnage cleared above it: Kazakhstan at 1,128, Vietnam at 1,179, China at 1,288. Europe did not buy the same molecule more cheaply; it bought different parcels from more places.
Saudi Arabia exported 4,770,690 tonnes of polypropylene to the world in 2025 at USD 999 per tonne; the 565,561 tonnes sent to the EU were 11.9% of that book. In January–August 2026 the EU took 294,810 tonnes — just over half of the whole of 2025 in two-thirds of the year. For the seller that is a reallocation inside a 4.8-million-tonne export book; for the European buyer it is a quarter of a lane.
One shock, three codes: the 47% is not a polypropylene artefact
A 47% move in a customs unit value needs a check before it is read as a price. Eurostat publishes the two polyethylene headings on the same basis, and they moved with polypropylene.
| Month | PE < 0.94 (HS 390110) | PE ≥ 0.94 (HS 390120) | PP (HS 390210) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09 | 1,056 | 984 | 1,084 |
| 2025-10 | 1,035 | 953 | 1,046 |
| 2025-11 | 1,000 | 937 | 1,027 |
| 2025-12 | 984 | 915 | 974 |
| 2026-01 | 956 | 903 | 970 |
| 2026-02 | 978 | 887 | 966 |
| 2026-03 | 1,000 | 878 | 976 |
| 2026-04 | 1,226 | 1,005 | 1,098 |
| 2026-05 | 1,321 | 1,100 | 1,289 |
| 2026-06 | 1,430 | 1,278 | 1,462 |
| 2026-07 | 1,437 | 1,312 | 1,431 |
| 2026-08 | 1,397 | 1,256 | 1,418 |
Between February and August 2026 the polypropylene import unit value rose 46.8%, polyethylene below 0.94 specific gravity 42.8% and polyethylene at 0.94 or above 41.6%. All three turned in April, peaked in June or July and were still 42–47% above February in August. A grade-mix change cannot produce the same step in three separate headings.
The monomer series points the same way and further: extra-EU imports of propylene (HS 290122) cleared at EUR 813 per tonne in March 2026, EUR 1,474 in June and EUR 956 in August. The feedstock spike unwound; the polymer price had not, at least by August.
Analysis / outlook. Public reporting places the shock in the second quarter. ChemOrbis described the Middle East war as having “sharply altered the global petrochemical landscape in the second quarter of 2026”, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting feedstock flows; INEOS reported second-quarter EBITDA for Olefins & Polymers Europe of EUR 452 million against EUR 61 million a year earlier, which it attributed to reduced regional exports tightening supply. A European polymer market report on 18 September 2026 described the spring price explosion, the summer decline, and polyolefin prices then below olefin monomer costs in Central Europe.
None of this is a forecast. The August unit value of EUR 1,418 is a supply-shock number, not a cost-curve number, and it can move faster than the tonnage.
What closed at home: 965,000 tonnes of polypropylene capacity
ChemOrbis, citing its Supply Wizard capacity tracking on 7 October 2026, counts 965,000 tonnes a year of European polypropylene nameplate capacity as closed, idled or earmarked for closure since 2024, inside a wider 11 million tonnes a year across olefins, polyolefins and the vinyl chain.
LyondellBasell opened consultations with trade unions on 15 June 2026 on the permanent shutdown of the PP2 unit at Brindisi by the end of the year, citing the site’s infrastructure and raw-material supply.
Analysis. 965,000 tonnes is 64% of the 1.52 million tonnes the bloc imported in 2025, and the direction matches the trade series. The size should not be read as a one-for-one import offset. Nameplate capacity announced for closure between 2024 and 2027 is not annual production lost in 2026; some units are idled rather than dismantled; and part of the estate is changing owner rather than closing, with LyondellBasell’s European portfolio going to AEQUITA/Velogy and SABIC’s European petrochemical business to AEQUITA, cleared by the European Commission on 3 September 2026. Capacity that stays in the register under a lower-cost owner still competes with imports.
The export book: Türkiye takes 28%, China pays the most
Table 5 covers the ten largest destinations for EU27 extra-EU exports of HS 390210.
| Destination | 2024 (t) | 2025 (t) | Jan–Aug 2025 (t) | Jan–Aug 2026 (t) | Share 2026 | Unit value 2026 (EUR/t) | Unit value Jan–Aug 2025 (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 245,920 | 195,196 | 140,555 | 137,142 | 28.5% | 1,336 | 1,238 |
| United Kingdom | 134,775 | 123,094 | 84,571 | 73,054 | 15.2% | 1,532 | 1,405 |
| China | 63,791 | 73,262 | 45,215 | 47,861 | 9.9% | 1,983 | 1,690 |
| Switzerland | 54,270 | 48,473 | 33,770 | 33,750 | 7.0% | 1,808 | 1,633 |
| Israel | 33,193 | 36,830 | 23,533 | 29,645 | 6.2% | 898 | 840 |
| United States | 38,821 | 39,031 | 28,203 | 21,334 | 4.4% | 2,000 | 2,018 |
| Serbia | 44,034 | 49,066 | 34,251 | 20,782 | 4.3% | 1,443 | 1,263 |
| Morocco | 31,442 | 30,870 | 21,046 | 19,549 | 4.1% | 1,732 | 1,575 |
| Ukraine | 31,257 | 30,882 | 22,953 | 15,406 | 3.2% | 1,464 | 1,173 |
| Mexico | 14,888 | 12,893 | 8,625 | 9,348 | 1.9% | 2,135 | 2,009 |
| Other destinations | 109,663 | 118,307 | 72,000 | 73,854 | 15.3% | 1,567 | — |
| Total extra-EU | 802,053 | 757,905 | 514,723 | 481,724 | 100.0% | 1,541 | 1,424 |
EU exports fell 6.4% to 481,724 tonnes while the unit value rose 8.2% to EUR 1,541. Türkiye took 137,142 tonnes, 28.5% of the book, at EUR 1,336; the United Kingdom 73,054 at 1,532; China 47,861 at 1,983, the highest price on the list; Switzerland 33,750 at 1,808; Israel 29,645 at 898, the lowest.
Analysis. The two-way book is asymmetric in value: Europe sold to China at EUR 1,983 per tonne and bought from China at EUR 1,288. HS 390210 cannot say whether the difference is melt-flow grade, additive package, packing or Incoterms; it can say that the EU’s residual export business is not competing with its own import business on price.
What this means for buyers
- Index to the month, not the year. The twelve-month average moved 0.3%; the February-to-August move was 46.8%. Rolling annual averages lag a market that repriced in one quarter.
- Re-qualify origins, not only suppliers. The top two origins lost 12.2 points of share in eight months and Kazakhstan went from 3.2% to 9.7%; a supplier list built in 2024 no longer describes the book.
- Compare landed cost, not the border ratio. Gulf lanes cleared at EUR 996–1,014 and the United Kingdom at 1,469, but the spread carries freight, packing and duty, none of which the code records.
- Keep homopolymer and copolymer apart. Copolymers sit in 390230, outside this series, so a copolymer contract cannot be benchmarked against these unit values without a grade adjustment.
- Watch the deficit, not the monthly total. 650,061 tonnes in eight months with exports down 6.4%: European prices will track import parity while that gap holds.
Data limitations
- Comext DS-045409 covers extra-EU trade only. Intra-EU dispatches of HS 390210 were 4,375,892 tonnes in 2025, 2.9 times the extra-EU import book, and are excluded; the two cannot be added.
- Unit values are declared value divided by net mass, on a CIF-type basis for imports, and move with grade, packing, Incoterms and related-party pricing without any change in the market.
- HS 390210 covers polypropylene homo- and random polymers in primary forms; propylene copolymers (390230) and finished articles are outside the series.
- 2026 monthly values are provisional and subject to revision; Eurostat refreshed this series on 16 October 2026 and the window ends at August 2026.
- The ChemOrbis capacity figures are nameplate, cover several product chains together, and include units earmarked for closure through 2027; they are not a production series and are never added to the trade data.
- China’s 2024 annual export record in Comtrade carries value without net mass, so no 2024 unit value is computed for it; the 2025 record is first-reported and subject to revision.
Sources
- Eurostat Comext DS-045409, monthly extra-EU imports of HS 390210, January 2019 to August 2026: API query, flow 1
- Eurostat Comext DS-045409, monthly extra-EU exports of HS 390210: API query, flow 2
- Eurostat Comext DS-045409, monthly extra-EU imports of polyethylene HS 390110 (cross-check): API query
- Eurostat Comext DS-045409, monthly extra-EU imports of polyethylene HS 390120 (cross-check): API query
- Eurostat Comext DS-045409, monthly extra-EU imports of propylene HS 290122: API query
- Eurostat, international trade in goods database: database entry point
- ChemOrbis, Europe’s petrochemical restructuring and capacity closures, 7 October 2026: market analysis
- ChemOrbis, Middle East war and first-half 2026 petrochemical earnings, 19 August 2026: market analysis
- Polimerica, LyondellBasell consultations on the Brindisi PP2 shutdown, 15 June 2026: news report
- PlasticPortal, European polymer prices and feedstock costs, 18 September 2026: market report
- UN Comtrade, Saudi Arabia annual exports of HS 390210, 2025: preview API
- UN Comtrade database: comtradeplus.un.org
PetroApex maintains the monthly polypropylene panel behind this article — extra-EU volumes, declared values, unit values and origin lanes for HS 390210, with the two polyethylene headings and propylene run as cross-checks — and can cut it to a specific origin, grade, destination or period. To request a sample report or a custom data extract, contact our research team. For the chain view, see the polypropylene market analysis page, the propylene monomer page that sets its feedstock cost, the competing polyethylene page, and propane, the PDH feedstock behind on-purpose propylene.