Europe bought 98,791 tonnes of methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) from outside the bloc in the twelve months to August 2026, 7.3% more than a year earlier, and 67.0% of it arrived from one origin: the United Kingdom. Across 2024 and 2025 the European Union stopped being a balanced trader in the molecule. Exports fell 30.7% in 2025 while imports rose 13.5%, and the external deficit widened from 10,937 tonnes in 2024 to 49,439 tonnes in the latest twelve months. The price line turned in March 2026: the average import parcel fell to EUR 873 per tonne, then climbed to EUR 1,477 by August. UK-origin parcels moved from EUR 863 to EUR 1,402 across the same five months, so the turn is a price move, not an artefact of a changing supplier mix.
Data updated: 2026-10-24
Latest 12 months: a heavier import book and a price that turned in March
The table covers EU27 trade with partners outside the EU in CN 2914 12 00, monthly, September 2025 to August 2026. The series is the latest window in the Eurostat Comext database, refreshed on 16 October 2026. Values are declared customs values, so unit values are transaction-weighted averages at the border, not contract or assessment prices.
| Month | Imports (t) | Import unit value (EUR/t) | Exports (t) | Export unit value (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09 | 6,789 | 987 | 1,911 | 1,359 |
| 2025-10 | 8,540 | 1,031 | 8,153 | 1,199 |
| 2025-11 | 6,167 | 1,012 | 4,970 | 1,320 |
| 2025-12 | 10,149 | 979 | 4,379 | 1,198 |
| 2026-01 | 4,335 | 937 | 4,121 | 1,124 |
| 2026-02 | 7,680 | 950 | 2,174 | 1,420 |
| 2026-03 | 8,133 | 873 | 3,044 | 1,467 |
| 2026-04 | 8,606 | 952 | 2,733 | 1,525 |
| 2026-05 | 7,746 | 1,184 | 3,231 | 1,514 |
| 2026-06 | 13,937 | 1,414 | 7,049 | 1,638 |
| 2026-07 | 10,779 | 1,371 | 6,259 | 1,803 |
| 2026-08 | 5,930 | 1,477 | 1,328 | 2,101 |
Three features matter. First, the volume is not evenly spread: June 2026 alone carried 13,937 tonnes, the largest month in the series, of which 11,663 tonnes came from the UK at EUR 1,451 per tonne. Second, the price path is a V: import unit values fell from EUR 987 in September 2025 to EUR 873 in March 2026, then rose to EUR 1,414 in June and EUR 1,477 in August. Third, exports are lumpy: October 2025 shipped 8,153 tonnes against 1,911 in September, and the export unit value ranged from EUR 1,124 to EUR 2,101 per tonne inside the same twelve months.
August 2026 is the newest month in the series and, like any newest month in a customs dataset, subject to revision.
Two years of change: from balanced trader to structural importer
Calendar-year totals show the shift better than any twelve-month window. In 2024 the EU imported 86,888 tonnes and exported 75,950 tonnes, a deficit of only 10,937 tonnes. In 2025 imports rose to 98,580 tonnes and exports fell to 52,633, and the deficit jumped to 45,947 tonnes. The latest twelve months extend the same pattern to 49,439 tonnes.
| Period | Imports (t) | Import value (EUR m) | Import unit value (EUR/t) | Exports (t) | Export value (EUR m) | Export unit value (EUR/t) | Net deficit (t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 (Jan–Dec) | 86,888 | 104.8 | 1,206 | 75,950 | 92.9 | 1,223 | 10,937 |
| 2025 (Jan–Dec) | 98,580 | 105.4 | 1,069 | 52,633 | 68.7 | 1,306 | 45,947 |
| 2025 (Jan–Aug) | 66,935 | 73.7 | 1,102 | 33,220 | 44.5 | 1,341 | 33,715 |
| 2026 (Jan–Aug) | 67,146 | 79.1 | 1,177 | 29,939 | 46.9 | 1,565 | 37,207 |
| 12 months to Aug 2025 | 92,036 | 104.1 | 1,132 | 48,395 | 64.1 | 1,325 | 43,641 |
| 12 months to Aug 2026 | 98,791 | 110.7 | 1,121 | 49,352 | 71.0 | 1,440 | 49,439 |
| Change, 8M 2025 to 8M 2026 | +0.3% | +7.2% | +6.9% | -9.9% | +5.2% | +16.7% | +3,492 |
Eight months against eight months removes the seasonality that makes December and January look dramatic. Imports were almost unchanged at 67,146 tonnes (+0.3%) but cost 7.2% more, at EUR 79.1 million, and the average tonne was 6.9% dearer. Exports fell 9.9% in volume to 29,939 tonnes while revenue rose 5.2% to EUR 46.9 million, because the export unit value gained 16.7% to EUR 1,565. The premium over imports widened from 17.1% to 28.4%, or EUR 194 to EUR 319 per tonne.
Flat volume with higher value on both sides is not a demand story. If European consumption were collapsing, imports would not be holding at a two-year high.
Who supplies Europe: one origin does most of the work
Extra-EU MEK imports are unusually concentrated for a commodity solvent. The United Kingdom supplied 66,200 tonnes in the latest twelve months, 67.0% of the total and 24.5% more than in the previous window. South Africa added 15,611 tonnes (15.8%), China 10,303 tonnes (10.4%) and Japan 5,083 tonnes (5.1%). Two origins, the UK and South Africa, account for 82.8% of everything that entered the EU from outside the bloc.
| Origin | 12 months to Aug 2025 (t) | Share | 12 months to Aug 2026 (t) | Share | Change in volume | Unit value, latest (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 53,185 | 57.8% | 66,200 | 67.0% | +24.5% | 1,095 |
| South Africa | 12,203 | 13.3% | 15,611 | 15.8% | +27.9% | 1,092 |
| China | 19,312 | 21.0% | 10,303 | 10.4% | -46.6% | 1,194 |
| Japan | 5,069 | 5.5% | 5,083 | 5.1% | +0.3% | 1,171 |
| Taiwan | 98 | 0.1% | 540 | 0.5% | +454.0% | 1,385 |
| United States | 33 | 0.0% | 510 | 0.5% | +1468.0% | 2,530 |
| Turkey | 184 | 0.2% | 408 | 0.4% | +121.4% | 1,235 |
| Total extra-EU | 92,036 | 100.0% | 98,791 | 100.0% | +7.3% | 1,121 |
The UK line needs a caveat. Since January 2021 UK–EU movements are third-country trade in Comext, so a short sea leg across the Channel is booked as an extra-EU import. The 67% dependence is partly customs geography — but it is real trade, declared and priced at a border that did not exist in 2020.
China is the line that actually moved. Chinese-origin volume fell 46.6% to 10,303 tonnes and its share halved from 21.0% to 10.4%; on a January–August basis the fall is 49.9%. South Africa moved the other way, up 27.9% at EUR 1,092 per tonne, the cheapest origin in the book. Japan held steady at 5,083 tonnes, which for a supplier of this size looks like contract business.
Where the exports go, and why 2024 was a different market
On the export side the United States takes 63.4% of the volume (31,285 tonnes) at EUR 1,265 per tonne, Switzerland 15.7% at EUR 1,449, the UK 10.7% at EUR 1,511 and Turkey 5.8% at EUR 1,144. The largest destination pays the least per tonne because it takes bulk parcels; smaller destinations pay more for packed or high-purity material.
The 2024 numbers are the reason the deficit widened so quickly. In January–August 2024 the EU exported 60,775 tonnes of MEK outside the bloc, and 46,731 tonnes of it — 76.9% — went to the United States at an average of EUR 1,083 per tonne, against EUR 1,233 per tonne on the import side that year — a gap consistent with an arbitrage flow rather than a service business. The same eight months of 2026 produced 29,939 tonnes in total, 50.7% less, and US-bound volume in the latest twelve months of 31,285 tonnes at EUR 1,265 per tonne is a different proposition: smaller, dearer, and no longer obviously an arbitrage.
India shows how a single cargo distorts a series: 1,899 tonnes in the twelve months to August 2025 at EUR 747 per tonne, essentially one July parcel, and nothing in the latest window.
Global supply: China sets the volume, Japan and South Africa the mid-range
Annual UN Comtrade returns put Europe’s import book in perspective. China exported 250.6 thousand tonnes of butanone in 2025, up from 238.6 in 2024, at USD 891 per tonne, 9.0% below 2024. Japan shipped 109.7 thousand tonnes at USD 843. South Africa, Europe’s second-largest origin, exported 43.2 thousand tonnes at USD 1,179, up from 38.3, and the 15,611 tonnes reaching the EU are 36% of that national book. Taiwan reported 26.9 thousand tonnes for 2024 and had not filed 2025.
The United States explains Europe’s export lane. American exporters shipped only 8.0 thousand tonnes in 2025 at USD 2,512 per tonne, while American importers took 81.3 thousand tonnes at USD 1,345. A net shortfall of about 73 thousand tonnes a year is what the EU’s 31,285 tonnes of exports there help fill.
The global market is not short: Chinese export volume is within 2% of its 2022 high and is being priced down. Yet the retreat from Chinese material was not a price-driven switch either. At EUR 1,194 per tonne, Chinese parcels were dearer than UK parcels at EUR 1,095 and South African at EUR 1,092; the Chinese share halved while European buyers were paying a premium for that origin. Something other than price per tonne decided the mix.
Analysis: what the 2026 price turn is telling buyers
The move needs explaining before it enters a budget. Average import unit values rose 69.2% in five months, from EUR 873 to EUR 1,477. Composition can be ruled out: the UK’s own parcel price rose 62.5% over the same months, from EUR 863 to EUR 1,402, and Chinese parcels rose from EUR 944 to EUR 1,531. Two independent origins moving together is a market move, not a denominator problem.
Analysis. Two readings fit. Availability: with the UK supplying two-thirds of the book, an interruption at the supplying complex lands directly in the price of the marginal cargo. Inventory: buyers who ran stocks down in late 2025 rebuilt once prices stopped falling, and the June volume of 13,937 tonnes, the highest month in the series, looks like that restocking.
Outlook. What keeps European prices high is structural: a two-origin book with one dominant supplier and a wide export premium. What would break it is Asian supply returning, and China’s 250.6 thousand tonnes of 2025 exports at a falling unit value says the material exists. The barrier is the cost and time of qualifying a new origin, not the availability of tonnes.
One regulatory signal belongs in any 2027 plan. In May 2026 the Swedish Chemicals Agency, as evaluating Member State under REACH, concluded in a substance evaluation that there is “sufficient evidence” of an exposure-based concern for consumers and workers, and that a harmonised classification for developmental toxicity under CLP “may be warranted” (AIHA summary). That is a conclusion, not a restriction, but a classification would change labelling and trigger formulation reviews downstream.
Capacity points the same way. ExxonMobil said in November 2025 that it would shut its Fife ethylene plant in Scotland in February 2026, citing high supply costs, weak markets and the UK policy environment (Reuters). It is not a MEK plant; it is the direction of travel for the refinery-integrated base MEK depends on.
What this means for buyers
- Benchmark against the right origin. The market average of EUR 1,121 per tonne hides a EUR 1,092–1,194 range. A buyer sourcing UK material and negotiating against the average is arguing from the wrong number.
- Treat the export premium as a signal. The EU earned EUR 319 per tonne more on exports than it paid on imports. When that holds for a full year, availability is being rationed by price, and the next tight month shows up in offers before it shows up in customs data.
- Qualify a second source before you need it. A book with one supplier at 67.0% is a single point of failure. A South African or Asian lane needs specification approval, packaging checks and sometimes reformulation; none of that can start in the month supply fails.
- Watch the classification file. If a developmental-toxicity classification is proposed, the cost of using MEK in open processes rises. Multi-year contracts should say who pays for a label change.
The neighbouring molecules are covered in the library: MIBK for the higher-boiling ketone, acetone for the low-boiling one, blended solvent oil for the hydrocarbon side, and the C4 chain in n-butene and n-butanol.
Data limitations
- Customs record only what crosses a border. MEK consumed where it is made never appears, so a shift from domestic to imported supply can look like demand growth.
- UK–EU flows have been third-country trade since January 2021, so the UK is the largest “extra-EU” origin. That flatters the import total against a pre-2021 definition and makes concentration look worse than the physical supply map.
- Declared customs values are border transaction values, not contract prices: they include freight and insurance on the import side, exclude them on the export side, and mix grades and packaging. One high-purity parcel moves the monthly average.
- Comtrade annual figures for 2025 are first-reported and subject to revision. Taiwan had not filed 2025 when this was extracted, and Saudi Arabia reports exports in kilograms, so it is omitted.
- No subscription price assessment was used, and nothing was interpolated. Every figure is a declared customs value or a ratio computed from one.
Data sources
- Eurostat Comext, dataset DS-045409, reporter EU27_2020, partner EXT_EU27_2020 and partner breakdown, product 291412, indicators VALUE_IN_EUROS and QUANTITY_IN_100KG, monthly 2024-01 to 2026-08; extracted 24 October 2026, dataset updated 16 October 2026: Eurostat databrowser, DS-045409.
- Eurostat Comext API, monthly extra-EU series for product 291412: import series query.
- UN Comtrade, annual exports of HS 291412 by reporter, 2020–2025: annual query, China 2025; annual query, United States 2025.
- Swedish Chemicals Agency substance evaluation of butanone, as summarised by AIHA, 21 May 2026: AIHA news item.
- Reuters, “Exxon to close Scottish chemicals plant in 2026 amid market uncertainty”, 18 November 2025: article.
PetroApex maintains the monthly series behind this article for every product in its library. If you need the underlying workbook, the full partner matrix behind the origin table, or a cut for a different CN code or period, request a sample report or a tailored dataset and we will send the specification and source list.