Summary. The European Union imported 1,393,090 tonnes of caustic soda in aqueous solution (HS 281512) from outside the bloc in the twelve months to August 2026, 2.3% less than a year earlier, and paid EUR 256 per tonne, 7.9% less. The origin book turned over: the United States and Norway supplied 471,397 tonnes in January–August 2026, 197,026 tonnes fewer than in the same eight months of 2025, while China, Korea, India and Indonesia supplied 236,897 tonnes, 161,342 more. China’s lane went from 10,800 to 95,549 tonnes at a declared EUR 271 per tonne. Europe did not buy less caustic soda so much as buy it elsewhere, in the year its own chlor-alkali plants ran at 59.6% of capacity in August.
Data updated: 2026-11-04
Latest 12 months: flat tonnage, a volatile border price
Table 1 covers September 2025 to August 2026 for HS 281512, EU27 trade with partners outside the bloc, from Eurostat Comext DS-045409, refreshed 16 October 2026. Unit values are declared value divided by net mass — a border ratio, not a market price.
| Month | Imports (t) | Import value (EUR m) | Import unit value (EUR/t) | Exports (t) | Export value (EUR m) | Export unit value (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09 | 171,017 | 37.5 | 219 | 88,897 | 17.9 | 201 |
| 2025-10 | 161,837 | 37.9 | 234 | 102,905 | 19.3 | 187 |
| 2025-11 | 55,213 | 15.1 | 273 | 48,445 | 11.5 | 238 |
| 2025-12 | 131,984 | 32.6 | 247 | 55,987 | 11.4 | 203 |
| 2026-01 | 57,609 | 17.7 | 307 | 36,246 | 8.5 | 235 |
| 2026-02 | 108,834 | 24.0 | 220 | 41,438 | 9.5 | 228 |
| 2026-03 | 68,904 | 17.7 | 257 | 56,042 | 11.6 | 206 |
| 2026-04 | 178,238 | 43.2 | 242 | 69,836 | 17.4 | 249 |
| 2026-05 | 100,479 | 29.9 | 298 | 70,271 | 16.7 | 238 |
| 2026-06 | 140,089 | 39.7 | 283 | 65,987 | 15.8 | 239 |
| 2026-07 | 171,582 | 46.9 | 274 | 73,347 | 16.1 | 219 |
| 2026-08 | 47,305 | 14.7 | 310 | 63,339 | 14.8 | 233 |
| Total | 1,393,090 | 356.7 | 256 | 772,742 | 170.3 | 220 |
Monthly imports ran from 47,305 tonnes in August 2026 to 178,238 tonnes in April 2026, a 3.8-fold range, because solution moves in parcels. The quarterly line is steadier: 388,067 tonnes at EUR 233 in September–November 2025, 298,427 at EUR 249 in December–February, 347,621 at EUR 261 in March–May, and 358,976 at EUR 282 across June–August 2026.
Exports fell faster than imports: 772,742 tonnes at EUR 220 per tonne, against 854,342 tonnes at EUR 240 a year earlier, down 9.6% in volume and 8.3% in unit value. The net import gap widened to 620,348 tonnes from 570,862 tonnes.
The annual record: 2022 set the price, 2025 reset the export book
| Period | Imports (t) | Import unit value (EUR/t) | Exports (t) | Export unit value (EUR/t) | Net balance (t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1,776,291 | 226 | 584,453 | 192 | -1,191,837 |
| 2020 | 1,667,468 | 193 | 858,272 | 129 | -809,197 |
| 2021 | 1,559,685 | 185 | 1,093,993 | 172 | -465,692 |
| 2022 | 1,881,073 | 451 | 959,893 | 422 | -921,179 |
| 2023 | 1,421,408 | 397 | 1,229,852 | 255 | -191,556 |
| 2024 | 1,405,040 | 270 | 1,127,896 | 212 | -277,144 |
| 2025 | 1,412,096 | 262 | 833,163 | 230 | -578,933 |
| 2025 Jan–Aug | 892,046 | 277 | 536,928 | 246 | -355,118 |
| 2026 Jan–Aug | 873,040 | 268 | 476,507 | 231 | -396,533 |
Imports ran 1.41–1.88 million tonnes a year from 2019 to 2025 and moved by less than 8% in every year except 2022 (+20.6%) and 2023 (−24.4%). Since 2023 the tonnage has been flat at 1.42, 1.41 and 1.41 million tonnes while the unit value fell from EUR 397 to EUR 262; the 2022 spike took the border price to EUR 451 and unwound over two years.
The export series carries the structural change. The bloc sold 1,093,993 tonnes in 2021, 1,229,852 in 2023 and 1,127,896 in 2024, then 833,163 in 2025 — a 26.1% fall in one year. January–August 2026 was 476,507 tonnes at EUR 231, against 536,928 tonnes at EUR 246. The net deficit, 191,556 tonnes in 2023, reached 578,933 tonnes in 2025.
Analysis. Europe has moved from a two-way merchant market of 1.4 million tonnes in and 1.1 million out to a one-way book of 1.4 million in and 0.83 million out, with the export side still shrinking in 2026. Whatever the bloc is short of, it no longer covers it by re-exporting someone else’s material.
Who supplies Europe: two Atlantic lanes lost 197,000 tonnes
| Origin | 2024 (t) | 2025 (t) | Jan–Aug 2025 (t) | Jan–Aug 2026 (t) | Share 2026 | Unit value 2026 (EUR/t) | Volume change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 540,512 | 759,906 | 433,699 | 299,232 | 34.3% | 244 | -31.0% |
| Norway | 456,777 | 313,711 | 234,724 | 172,165 | 19.7% | 307 | -26.7% |
| China | 1,883 | 11,961 | 10,800 | 95,549 | 10.9% | 271 | +784.7% |
| Egypt | 206,746 | 101,074 | 83,463 | 77,973 | 8.9% | 239 | -6.6% |
| Korea | 0 | 30,922 | 30,898 | 77,267 | 8.8% | 234 | +150.1% |
| India | 15,091 | 33,857 | 33,857 | 54,661 | 6.3% | 268 | +61.4% |
| United Kingdom | 28,739 | 84,980 | 19,854 | 52,525 | 6.0% | 371 | +164.6% |
| Russia | 45,345 | 29,569 | 21,562 | 16,579 | 1.9% | 211 | -23.1% |
The United States is still the largest origin at 299,232 tonnes and 34.3% of the eight-month book, but it shipped 433,699 tonnes a year earlier and 759,906 tonnes across 2025. Norway fell from 234,724 to 172,165 tonnes. Together the two Atlantic lanes lost 197,026 tonnes and their share fell from 74.9% to 54.0%.
The gain is Asian and concentrated. China supplied 1,883 tonnes in 2024, 11,961 in 2025 and 95,549 in January–August 2026 — 10.9% of the book against 1.2% in the same months of 2025. Korea went from nothing in 2024 to 30,922 tonnes in 2025 and 77,267 in 2026; India from 15,091 tonnes in 2024 to 54,661, up 61.4% year on year; Indonesia, absent in 2024 and 2025, supplied 9,420. The four moved from 8.5% to 27.1% of the import book.
Egypt slipped 6.6% to 77,973 tonnes; the United Kingdom more than doubled to 52,525 tonnes at EUR 371, the dearest lane.
Analysis. The re-routing is not a price arbitrage on the customs file. The Asian lanes are not the cheapest: China declared EUR 271 per tonne and India EUR 268, against EUR 244 for the United States and EUR 234 for Korea. What the file shows is a change in the supplier list, not a change in the ranking of prices.
Solid caustic soda: EUR 796 beads, and a surplus that has gone
Solid sodium hydroxide (HS 281511) is a separate line and a different business: packed beads and flakes at two to three times the per-tonne value of liquor. Europe has historically been a net exporter; it no longer is.
| Period | Imports (t) | Import unit value (EUR/t) | Exports (t) | Export unit value (EUR/t) | Net balance (t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 42,446 | 652 | 104,795 | 533 | 62,349 |
| 2020 | 45,277 | 521 | 107,501 | 419 | 62,224 |
| 2021 | 31,870 | 537 | 135,374 | 472 | 103,504 |
| 2022 | 50,211 | 1,053 | 93,926 | 1,021 | 43,716 |
| 2023 | 40,335 | 853 | 89,649 | 729 | 49,314 |
| 2024 | 37,700 | 691 | 66,318 | 668 | 28,618 |
| 2025 | 37,922 | 730 | 45,337 | 797 | 7,415 |
| 2025 Jan–Aug | 24,281 | 749 | 33,353 | 784 | 9,072 |
| 2026 Jan–Aug | 33,196 | 710 | 32,866 | 796 | -331 |
The bloc exported 104,795 tonnes of solid in 2019 against 42,446 imported, a surplus of 62,349 tonnes; in 2021 the surplus reached 103,504 tonnes. By 2025 it was 7,415 tonnes, and in January–August 2026 the balance flipped to −331 tonnes: 33,196 tonnes imported at EUR 710 against 32,866 exported at EUR 796.
The import side did the damage. China supplied 10,967 tonnes in January–August 2026, 154.6% more than the 4,308 tonnes of a year earlier and 33.0% of the solid import book, at EUR 651 per tonne; Russia supplied 8,231 tonnes at EUR 743. The export book, still earning a premium, has shrunk from 135,374 tonnes in 2021 to under 33,000 tonnes in eight months of 2026.
Analysis. Solid is where Europe still has a packaging and quality advantage, and it is being competed away from both ends: Chinese beads entering at EUR 651 and a European export book that has lost three-quarters of its 2021 volume.
The co-product check: chlorine at 59.6% utilisation
Caustic soda is not made alone: every tonne comes with chlorine, and the chlorine half of the cell cannot be stored in quantity. Euro Chlor, whose members run 60 sites and 11 million tonnes of capacity in 18 countries, publishes monthly operating data.
Its members produced 590,109 tonnes of chlorine in August 2026, 14.2% less than the 687,912 tonnes of August 2025, at 59.6% capacity utilisation against 70.3%. July 2026 was 641,314 tonnes at 64.8%. The first half ran 3,850,283 tonnes at 66.6%, against 3,911,225 at 68.5% a year earlier — 1.6% less volume, 1.9 points less utilisation. Caustic soda stocks were 183,079 tonnes at end-August, 69,530 tonnes and 27.5% below August 2025.
Analysis. Read the three facts together. Output fell 14.2% year on year in August, stocks fell 27.5%, and extra-EU imports of liquor were flat at −2.1% in January–August. Had demand collapsed, stocks would have risen; had imports replaced lost output tonne for tonne, the import book would have grown. Neither happened. The bloc ran its cells less, drew down inventory, exported 11.3% less and bought the same tonnage from different ports — a supply-side reorganisation, not a demand event.
The global export book: one code, a 97% spread in unit value
| Reporter | 2024 (t) | 2024 unit value (USD/t) | 2025 (t) | 2025 unit value (USD/t) | Volume change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 2,596,724 | 299 | 3,437,254 | 312 | +32.4% |
| Japan | 1,869,968 | 182 | 1,876,613 | 201 | +0.4% |
| Saudi Arabia | 525,499 | 279 | 249,689 | 396 | −52.5% |
| India | 160,179 | 405 | 231,084 | 420 | +44.3% |
| Taiwan | 722,327 | 364 | n/a | n/r | not filed |
| Thailand | 58,297 | 250 | 103,917 | 211 | +78.3% |
China is the largest declared exporter at 3,437,254 tonnes in 2025, 32.4% more than 2024, at USD 312 per tonne; the United States is the largest by value, USD 1,406.1 million against USD 1,194.2 million, up 17.7%, but its records carry no net mass. Japan is second at 1,876,613 tonnes, flat year on year, but at USD 201 — the cheapest large book. Saudi Arabia halved to 249,689 tonnes while its unit value rose from USD 279 to USD 396. India grew 44.3% to 231,084 tonnes at USD 420, and Thailand 78.3% to 103,917 tonnes at USD 211.
Analysis / outlook. A code that clears at USD 201 in Japan and USD 396 in Saudi Arabia is not one market: the spread is concentration, packaging and freight, none of which HS 281512 records.
China’s surplus is the source, and it is priced to move
China declared 2,596,724 tonnes of exports in 2024 at USD 299 per tonne and 3,437,254 tonnes in 2025 at USD 312. The customs figures cited by SunSirs put January–March 2026 exports at 1.0682 million tonnes, 11.59% above the same quarter of 2025, with solid caustic soda up 91.72% to 220,800 tonnes and liquid up 0.63% to 847,400 tonnes.
The domestic market behind that surplus is weak. SunSirs has the Chinese average price at RMB 635 per tonne at the start of October 2026 and RMB 594 at the end, down 6.43% in the month and 29.12% year on year, with its chlor-alkali index at 727 points on 29 October against a 2011–2026 high of 2,128. SunSirs attributes the weakness to capacity additions, low alkali intensity in Chinese alumina and an Indonesian project that switched its precipitant to magnesium oxide.
Analysis / outlook. China’s problem is length in the balance; Europe’s is the cost of running a cell. The two are complementary, which is why the lane appeared in 2026 and why it should be treated as structural rather than opportunistic. The caveat is that China’s declared EUR 271 into Europe is not visibly below the US lane; on this code it cannot be, because concentration is not recorded and 50% liquor carries twice the caustic of 32% liquor in the same tonne.
What this means for buyers
- Re-qualify the origin list, not just the price. Two lanes that carried 74.9% of the January–August 2025 book carried 54.0% in 2026, a swing of roughly 200,000 tonnes.
- Ask for concentration, not tonnage. HS 281512 covers every aqueous strength; convert to a 100% NaOH basis before comparing a EUR 271 Chinese tonne with a EUR 244 American one.
- Keep solid and liquor separate. Solid clears EUR 710 on import and EUR 796 on export, and the EU surplus has just disappeared. Packed contracts should not index to liquor.
- Watch chlorine for early warning. Utilisation of 59.6% in August is the lowest 2026 reading; a recovery in chlorine offtake would tighten caustic without any change in caustic demand.
Data limitations
- HS 281512 covers aqueous solution at any concentration, which Eurostat does not record; cross-lane unit values compare parcels of different strength and packaging.
- HS 281511 (solid) is a separate code and is never added to 281512 here; the two are reported side by side.
- Comext DS-045409 covers extra-EU trade only; flows between member states, several times larger, are excluded. Euro Chlor’s series covers EU27 plus Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
- Unit values are declared value divided by net mass; they move with Incoterms, packaging, related-party pricing and concentration without any change in the market.
- China files no monthly records in the Comtrade preview database; its 2026 picture rests on General Administration of Customs figures republished by SunSirs. Comtrade 2025 annual figures are first-reported and subject to revision; Taiwan has not filed a 2025 record.
- US annual export records for 2024–2025 carry value without net mass, so no annual US export unit value is computed.
Sources
- Eurostat Comext DS-045409, monthly extra-EU imports of HS 281512, January 2019 to August 2026: API query, flow 1
- Eurostat Comext DS-045409, monthly extra-EU exports of HS 281512: API query, flow 2
- Eurostat Comext DS-045409, monthly extra-EU exports of solid caustic soda (HS 281511): API query, flow 2
- Eurostat, international trade in goods database: database entry point
- Euro Chlor, August 2026 chlorine production and caustic soda stocks: monthly statistics release
- Euro Chlor, industry capacity and site count: industry page
- SunSirs, China caustic soda import and export data, January–March 2026: analysis
- SunSirs, caustic soda prices in October 2026: monthly price review
- SunSirs, China caustic soda oversupply, 27 October 2026: market analysis
- UN Comtrade, China annual exports of HS 281512, 2025: preview API
- UN Comtrade, Japan annual exports of HS 281512, 2025: preview API
- UN Comtrade, United States annual exports of HS 281512, 2025: preview API
- UN Comtrade database: comtradeplus.un.org
PetroApex maintains the monthly caustic soda panel behind this article — extra-EU volumes, declared values, unit values and origin lanes for HS 281511 and HS 281512, with the chlorine co-product series alongside — and can cut it to a specific origin, concentration, packing or period. To request a sample report or a custom data extract, contact our research team. For the chain view, see the chlorine market analysis that shares the cell with caustic soda, the downstream ethylene dichloride and vinyl chloride pages, and our trade notes on EU ethylene dichloride and EU PVC imports.