What is Nitrogen Fertilizer Market Analysis: Price Trend, Trade Data and Urea Demand
Analysts Sentiment
Bullish
Neutral
Bearish
What's driving sentiment this week:
Latest published month (2026-07) — Sentiment: Bullish
The most recent published customs observation for HS 310210 is 2026-07 at USD 453.99/ton, -21.8% against the previous month and -3.8% against 2025-08.
Reported volume across the fixed 12-economy panel was 5,182,088 tonnes over the window, 431,841 tonnes a month on average, and the three-month trend is +11.0%.
Next 1–3 Months — Outlook
This page is refreshed from public customs statistics rather than paid price assessments, so the next revision will roll in each newly published month for HS 310210. Direction shown here is a reading of published customs unit values, not a forecast.
Key Market Impact
Customs unit values for this heading are the single most checkable price signal available without a subscription: they combine the product mix actually crossing borders, the average contract level behind those shipments and freight-relevant volume. Treat them as the trade-weighted baseline for the heading, and read the coverage note above before applying them to a single grade.
How About the Price?
Data source: UN Comtrade public trade statistics (https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202607&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true) | Last updated: 2026-11-02
Demand-side factors
- Urea demand is driven by direct application to cereals, rice and maize, by the industrial urea used in urea-formaldehyde resins and AdBlue-type diesel exhaust fluid, and by the seasonality of the northern and southern hemisphere application windows, so offtake follows crop economics and gas-based ammonia production costs.
- Related market pages on this site: Dry Gas (C1-C2) (the natural gas feedstock for ammonia), Naphtha (the alternative ammonia and urea plant feedstock), Crude Oil (the energy price that sets urea production cost).
Price Trajectory, latest 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07)
The monthly customs export unit value for HS 310210 moved from USD 471.88/ton in 2025-08 to USD 453.99/ton in 2026-07 (-3.8% across the window). The window high was USD 601.31/ton in 2026-05 and the low USD 407.73/ton in 2025-12. Three-month averages put the latest quarter +11.0% against the previous one, which is classified here as bullish.
The same panel reported USD 2,520.6 million of export value on 5,182,088 tonnes over the twelve months, an average of 431,841 tonnes a month. Values are customs returns for the stated HS heading, so they capture the traded mix of that heading rather than a single quoted grade.
The EU side of the same heading is one month fresher than the panel above: Eurostat Comext records EU27 imports of HS 310210 from outside the EU at USD 521.86/ton in 2026-08 (EUR 450.14/ton at the ECB monthly reference rate), -0.2% against 2026-07, on 497,665 tonnes; the twelve months to 2026-08 totalled 5,171,138 tonnes. On the 11 months the two datasets share (2025-09 to 2026-07), three-month blocks that far apart moved +19.9% on the export panel and +35.4% on the EU import side, so the two agree on direction. Import values are recorded on a CIF-type basis by a single bloc, so the level is not comparable with the export panel — the comparison above is directional.
2026-08 is deliberately not in the series: of the 12 economies that make up this page's fixed panel, 11 had filed both value and net weight for this heading when the page was rebuilt on 2026-11-02, while the heading drew 17 filers in total that month; 2026-09 drew 0 filings for this heading, 0 of them from panel members, and 2026-10 drew 0 (0 from the panel). Splicing a partly-filed month onto a fixed panel would move the unit value through composition alone, so the window stays at 2026-07 until the whole panel for 2026-08 has reported.
HS 310210 carries urea only, whether or not in aqueous solution, so the series is product-specific within nitrogen fertilizers but does not cover ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulphate, calcium ammonium nitrate or NPK compounds, which sit in other headings; the page therefore uses urea as the nitrogen-fertilizer price benchmark rather than as a full-category average.
Supply-side factors
- Fixed reporting panel of 12 economies: CAN (124), DNK (208), FIN (246), GRC (300), GTM (320), HUN (348), IRL (372), MYS (458), POL (616), PRT (620), SWE (752), USA (842). The panel is held constant in every month of the window so month-to-month movement is not a composition effect.
- Monthly unit value range over the window: USD 407.73 to USD 601.31/ton.
- Latest month, 2026-07: USD 453.99/ton, -21.8% against the previous month, on 491,741 tonnes.
Basis: these are customs unit values for the stated HS heading, not quoted spot, contract or assessed prices, and no paid price assessment is used or redistributed on this page. Every figure can be re-checked at the API links listed at the end of this page.
Need the supplier landscape, contract structure or a delivered-cost build-up behind this heading? Request a sample report or a custom cut.
Data Sources
Every monthly endpoint used for the series on this page, the EU cross-check, the exchange rate used to express it in dollars and the HS classification reference:
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202508&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202509&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202510&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202511&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202512&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202601&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202602&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202603&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202604&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202605&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202606&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202607&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/files/v1/app/reference/HS.json
- Eurostat Comext DS-045409, EU27 extra-EU imports, monthly: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?format=JSON&freq=M&reporter=EU27_2020&partner=EXT_EU27_2020&flow=1&indicators=VALUE_IN_EUROS&indicators=QUANTITY_IN_100KG&product=310210&sinceTimePeriod=2025-09
- ECB euro reference rate, monthly average (EXR/M.USD.EUR.SP00.A): https://data-api.ecb.europa.eu/service/data/EXR/M.USD.EUR.SP00.A?format=csvdata&startPeriod=2025-09&endPeriod=2026-10
Substitutes & Alternatives
Substitution and procurement choices depend on application, grade and delivered cost; compare the related market pages before using this page for a sourcing decision.
Related PetroApex Market Pages
Regulatory Status
Product-specific regulatory rows without a directly verified official URL were removed. Consult the current official source before relying on a compliance conclusion.
Key Influence Events
Nitrogen fertilizer is a category of agricultural inputs that supply nitrogen—an essential macronutrient—to crops and soils to promote vegetative growth, protein synthesis, and yield. Nearly all synthetic nitrogen fertilizers are derived from anhydrous ammonia produced via the Haber-Bosch process, in which atmospheric nitrogen is reacted with hydrogen (sourced primarily from natural gas steam methane reforming) at high temperature and pressure over an iron catalyst. Nitrogen fertilizers are the single largest input cost in global crop production and are critical to feeding the world's population.
Top Countries Production Capacity
Production Process of Nitrogen Fertilizer Market Analysis: Price Trend, Trade Data and Urea Demand
Nitrogen fertilizer is a category of agricultural inputs that supply nitrogen—an essential macronutrient—to crops and soils to promote vegetative growth, protein synthesis, and yield. Nearly all synthetic nitrogen fertilizers are derived from anhydrous ammonia produced via the Haber-Bosch process, in which atmospheric nitrogen is reacted with hydrogen (sourced primarily from natural gas steam methane reforming) at high temperature and pressure over an iron catalyst. Nitrogen fertilizers are the single largest input cost in global crop production and are critical to feeding the world's population.
Specs & Grades
Numeric specification rows without a directly verified product-grade source were removed; request the current supplier specification for grade-level decisions.
Data Sources
Price and volume figures are derived from the directly verified public sources below. The customs unit values are USD/ton; they are not subscription price assessments. Numeric assay rows were removed because no public product-grade source is cited for them - confirm grade-level specifications with the supplier. Every monthly endpoint used for the series on this page is listed below, together with the HS classification reference.
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202508&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202509&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202510&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202511&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202512&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202601&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202602&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202603&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202604&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202605&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202606&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202607&cmdCode=310210&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/files/v1/app/reference/HS.json
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