HomePetro ProductCrude Oil Market Analysis: Price Trend, Capacity and Trade Data

Crude Oil Market Analysis: Price Trend, Capacity and Trade Data

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum liquid composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials found in geological formations beneath the Earth's surface. It is extracted via drilling and serves as the primary raw material for the petroleum refining industry, where it is processed into fuels such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and heating oil, as well as petrochemical feedstocks including naphtha, ethylene, and propylene, and other products such as lubricants, asphalt, and waxes. Crude oil varies widely in composition, color, viscosity, and density depending on its geographic origin and geological source. It is classified primarily by API gravity (a measure of density relative to water) and sulfur content, which together determine its commercial value and refining complexity. Major benchmark crudes include West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent Blend, and Dubai/Oman.

Analysts Sentiment

Bullish

52.7%

Neutral

18.9%

Bearish

28.4%

Data source: UN Comtrade monthly trade statistics (https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?period=202606&cmdCode=270900&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true) | Last updated: 2026-09-24

Latest published month (2026-06) — Sentiment: Bullish

The most recent published customs observation for HS 270900 is 2026-06 at USD 576/ton, -5.6% against the previous month and +21.2% against 2025-07.

Reported volume across the fixed 10-economy panel was 656,643,692 tonnes over the window, 54,720,308 tonnes a month on average, and the three-month trend is +26.6%.

Next 1–3 Months — Outlook

This page is refreshed from public customs statistics rather than paid price assessments, so the next revision rolls in each newly published month for HS 270900. The direction shown is a reading of published customs unit values, not a forecast.

Key Market Impact

Customs unit values for this heading are the single most checkable price signal available without a subscription: they combine the product mix actually crossing borders, the average contract level behind those shipments, and freight-relevant volume. Buyers and sellers using this page should treat them as the trade-weighted baseline for the heading, and read the coverage note above before applying them to a single grade.

PropertyTypical Value / RangeUnitGrade / Benchmark
API Gravity (Light Sweet)38 – 45°APIWTI, Brent
API Gravity (Medium)22 – 38°APIDubai, Basrah Medium
API Gravity (Heavy)10 – 22°APIMaya, Merey
API Gravity (Extra Heavy / Bitumen)< 10°APICanadian Oil Sands Bitumen
Sulfur Content (Sweet)< 0.5wt%WTI, Brent, Bonny Light
Sulfur Content (Sour)0.5 – 2.0wt%Dubai, Arab Light
Sulfur Content (High Sour)> 2.0wt%Maya, Basrah Heavy
Viscosity (Light)2 – 10cSt at 40°CWTI, Brent
Viscosity (Heavy)100 – 10,000+cSt at 40°CMerey, Athabasca Bitumen
Pour Point-60 to +30°CVaries by origin
Total Acid Number (TAN)0.05 – 3.0+mg KOH/gLow: WTI; High: Doba, Duri
Water and Sediment (BS&W)< 0.5 (pipeline spec)vol%All export grades
Salt Content< 10 (pipeline spec)PTB (lbs/1000 bbl)All export grades
Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP)2 – 14psiVaries; light crudes higher
Nickel + Vanadium (metals)1 – 500+ppmLow: Brent; High: Maya, Merey

Data Sources

Price, volume and capacity figures on this page are computed from the public sources listed below; no subscription assessment data is used or redistributed.

How About the Price?

Crude Oil Market Analysis: Price Trend, Capacity and Trade Data Price History (USD/ton)
Period Price (USD/ton) Change Change Rate
2026-06 576.06 -34.27 -5.61%
2026-05 610.33 17.54 2.96%
2026-04 592.79 71.8 13.78%
2026-03 520.99 71.38 15.88%
2026-02 449.61 14.7 3.38%
2026-01 434.91 -5.52 -1.25%
2025-12 440.43 -5.33 -1.2%
2025-11 445.76 -5.68 -1.26%
2025-10 451.44 -9.6 -2.08%
2025-09 461.04 -2.3 -0.5%
2025-08 463.34 -11.82 -2.49%
2025-07 475.16 0 0%

Key Influence Events

Key Events Influencing Crude Oil Market Analysis: Price Trend, Capacity and Trade Data Market
Time Factor Description Source
2025-07 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 270900 export unit value USD 475/ton. Panel value USD 24,413.4 million on 51,379,315 tonnes across the fixed 10-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202507&cmdCode=270900&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2025-08 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 270900 export unit value USD 463/ton, -2.5% against the previous month. Panel value USD 24,031.7 million on 51,866,012 tonnes across the fixed 10-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202508&cmdCode=270900&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2025-09 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 270900 export unit value USD 461/ton, -0.5% against the previous month. Panel value USD 24,257.2 million on 52,613,759 tonnes across the fixed 10-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202509&cmdCode=270900&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2025-10 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 270900 export unit value USD 451/ton, -2.1% against the previous month. Panel value USD 24,895.2 million on 55,146,028 tonnes across the fixed 10-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202510&cmdCode=270900&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2025-11 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 270900 export unit value USD 446/ton, -1.3% against the previous month. Panel value USD 21,588.0 million on 48,429,254 tonnes across the fixed 10-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202511&cmdCode=270900&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2025-12 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 270900 export unit value USD 440/ton, -1.2% against the previous month. Panel value USD 23,545.6 million on 53,460,832 tonnes across the fixed 10-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202512&cmdCode=270900&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2026-01 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 270900 export unit value USD 435/ton, -1.3% against the previous month. Panel value USD 22,090.0 million on 50,792,421 tonnes across the fixed 10-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202601&cmdCode=270900&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2026-02 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 270900 export unit value USD 450/ton, +3.4% against the previous month. Panel value USD 21,884.2 million on 48,673,511 tonnes across the fixed 10-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202602&cmdCode=270900&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2026-03 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 270900 export unit value USD 521/ton, +15.9% against the previous month. Panel value USD 29,290.4 million on 56,220,134 tonnes across the fixed 10-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202603&cmdCode=270900&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2026-04 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 270900 export unit value USD 593/ton, +13.8% against the previous month. Panel value USD 37,729.6 million on 63,647,839 tonnes across the fixed 10-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202604&cmdCode=270900&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2026-05 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 270900 export unit value USD 610/ton, +3.0% against the previous month. Panel value USD 39,173.6 million on 64,184,229 tonnes across the fixed 10-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202605&cmdCode=270900&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2026-06 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 270900 export unit value USD 576/ton, -5.6% against the previous month. Panel value USD 34,696.5 million on 60,230,357 tonnes across the fixed 10-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202606&cmdCode=270900&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true

Data source: UN Comtrade monthly trade statistics (https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?period=202606&cmdCode=270900&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true) | Last updated: 2026-09-24

Price Trajectory, latest 12 months (2025-07 to 2026-06)

The monthly customs export unit value for HS 270900 moved from USD 475/ton in 2025-07 to USD 576/ton in 2026-06 (+21.2% across the window). The window high was USD 610/ton in 2026-05 and the low USD 435/ton in 2026-01. Three-month averages put the latest quarter +26.6% against the previous one, which is classified here as bullish.

The same panel reported USD 327,595.5 million of export value on 656,643,692 tonnes over the twelve months, an average of 54,720,308 tonnes a month. These are customs returns for the stated HS heading, so they capture the traded mix of that heading rather than a single quoted grade.

Supply-side factors

  • Fixed reporting panel of 10 economies: AUS, BRA, CAN, DNK, DEU, MYS, MEX, POL, GBR, USA. The panel is constant in every month of the window, so month-to-month movement is not a composition effect.
  • Monthly unit value range over the window: USD 435 to USD 610/ton.
  • Latest month, 2026-06: USD 576/ton, -5.6% against the previous month, on 60,230,357 tonnes.

Demand-side factors

  • Global crude oil demand collapsed in early 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic, leading to historic price drops (2020 Q1–Q2).
  • Demand recovery through 2020 and 2021 supported gradual price rebound absent major disruption events.
  • Increased insurance premiums and rerouting costs from Red Sea disruptions elevated crude oil logistics costs, constraining effective demand (2023–2025).
  • Geopolitical risk premium from Iran-U.S. tensions and Strait of Hormuz closure heightened market volatility and demand uncertainty (2026 Q1–Q2).

Related market pages on this site: Diesel, Naphtha, Gasoline, Bitumen market analysis.

Basis: these are customs unit values for the stated HS heading, not quoted spot, contract or assessed prices, and no paid price assessment is used or redistributed on this page. Every figure can be re-checked at the API links listed at the end of this page.

Top Countries Production Capacity

Average Crude Oil Market Analysis: Price Trend, Capacity and Trade Data Capacity by Country/Region in 2025 (tons/year)
Rank Country / Region Average Annual Production (tons/year)
Global Total2293253735
1 United States 669767000
2 Saudi Arabia 472736993
3 China 216036000
4 Canada 211908000
5 Kuwait 124330207
6 Norway 92181000
7 Kazakhstan 86616000
8 Mexico 82672000
9 Nigeria 70719600
10 Venezuela 56379857
11 Algeria 42043420
12 United Kingdom 28916000
13 Indonesia 28822000
14 India 28230000

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