EU27 imports of aniline fell 8.7% to 273,991 tonnes in the twelve months to August 2026, and the declared import unit value fell 6.7% to EUR 1,156 per tonne, the lowest twelve-month average since 2021. That average is already behind the market. Unit values bottomed at EUR 1,076 in November 2025 and reached EUR 1,415 in July 2026, and Chinese domestic aniline went from RMB 8,845 to RMB 16,100 per tonne between mid-February and mid-October. Chinese-origin parcels recorded no EU customs volume at all in April, May and June 2026, then returned in July at EUR 1,505 per tonne and in August at EUR 1,798, against a 2025 China average of EUR 1,354.
Data updated: 2026-10-28
Latest 12 months: a falling average over a rising price
The table covers HS 292141, EU27 trade with partners outside the bloc, September 2025 to August 2026, the newest complete window in Eurostat Comext (refreshed 16 October 2026). Unit values are declared value divided by net mass.
| Month | Imports (t) | Import unit value (EUR/t) | Exports (t) | Export unit value (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09 | 15,926 | 1,077 | 5,417 | 814 |
| 2025-10 | 37,922 | 1,128 | 5,242 | 708 |
| 2025-11 | 12,269 | 1,076 | 11,350 | 788 |
| 2025-12 | 15,808 | 1,106 | 11,190 | 949 |
| 2026-01 | 25,115 | 1,103 | 10,400 | 995 |
| 2026-02 | 29,156 | 1,110 | 8,532 | 960 |
| 2026-03 | 21,847 | 1,091 | 10,193 | 1,102 |
| 2026-04 | 30,717 | 1,097 | 2,289 | 1,564 |
| 2026-05 | 15,844 | 1,211 | 4,994 | 2,042 |
| 2026-06 | 19,430 | 1,232 | 4,312 | 1,433 |
| 2026-07 | 18,747 | 1,415 | 3,922 | 1,502 |
| 2026-08 | 31,210 | 1,241 | 865 | 904 |
Volume has no trend inside the window: monthly arrivals ran from 12,269 tonnes in November 2025 to 37,922 tonnes in October 2025, and the final three months sit inside that range. Price does have a trend. The import unit value fell to EUR 1,076 in November, the floor of the window, then rose in six of the next eight months to EUR 1,415 in July 2026, 31.5% above the floor. August printed EUR 1,241, and the twelve-month average of EUR 1,156 is 20.2% below the July reading, so an index built on the trailing average is already buying below replacement.
The export side is small and flat: 78,709 tonnes outside the bloc in the same twelve months, 0.1% less than the previous window, at EUR 1,068 per tonne, 2.7% lower. The EU imported 3.5 tonnes for every tonne it exported — a structural net buyer, not a swing supplier.
The annual series: a 34% step down in 2023 that never reversed
The most important annual number here is not 2026 but 2023.
| Year | Imports (t) | Import unit value (EUR/t) | Exports (t) | Export unit value (EUR/t) | Net balance (t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 397,134 | 789 | 53,206 | 868 | −343,928 |
| 2021 | 382,923 | 954 | 61,231 | 1,170 | −321,692 |
| 2022 | 397,217 | 1,270 | 43,390 | 1,787 | −353,827 |
| 2023 | 263,028 | 1,267 | 84,929 | 1,479 | −178,099 |
| 2024 | 293,685 | 1,234 | 96,051 | 1,284 | −197,635 |
| 2025 | 282,637 | 1,182 | 78,975 | 942 | −203,662 |
Extra-EU imports moved from 397,217 tonnes in 2022 to 263,028 in 2023, a 33.8% fall, then recovered 11.7% in 2024 and lost 3.8% in 2025. The 2023 step was not a price event: the import unit value barely moved, from EUR 1,270 to EUR 1,267. A volume collapse with a flat price reads as a demand event, and the level never came back — 2024 and 2025 both sit roughly a quarter below the 2020–2022 plateau of about 390,000 tonnes.
Declared import value peaked at EUR 504.5 million in 2022 and was EUR 334.0 million in 2025; the twelve months to August 2026 are EUR 316.6 million. Exports ran the other way: 43,390 tonnes in 2022, 84,929 in 2023, 96,051 in 2024, then 78,975 in 2025 at a unit value 26.6% lower. A widening import gap against a shrinking, cheaper export book is what a region losing downstream capacity looks like on a customs record.
Three origins supply the entire import book
Concentration here is structure, not trend: three declared origins account for the whole extra-EU book in every year of the series, and the ranking inside that group has moved twice in three years.
| Origin | 2024 (t) | 2025 (t) | Share 2025 | Unit value 2025 | Jan–Aug 2026 (t) | Share 2026 | Unit value 2026 | Volume vs Jan–Aug 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 243,062 | 212,070 | 75.0% | 1,121 | 162,369 | 84.5% | 1,153 | +9.8% |
| China | 33,652 | 64,043 | 22.7% | 1,354 | 23,413 | 12.2% | 1,243 | −49.5% |
| United States | 16,969 | 6,511 | 2.3% | 1,417 | 6,279 | 3.3% | 1,522 | −3.6% |
China is the only origin that has changed size materially: 33,652 tonnes in 2024, 64,043 in 2025 (a 90.3% increase), then 23,413 tonnes in January–August 2026, 49.5% less than the same months of 2025. Its share went from 11.5% to 22.7% to 12.2%. The United States moved the other way a year earlier, from 16,969 tonnes in 2024 to 6,511 in 2025, 61.6% lower.
The United Kingdom is the largest lane and the one that needs the most careful reading: 212,070 tonnes in 2025 (75.0% of the extra-EU book) and 162,369 tonnes in January–August 2026 (84.5%). A declared origin of that size is a distribution fact before it is a production fact. The UK lane’s unit value, EUR 1,153 in 2026, sits below the China lane at EUR 1,243 and far below the US lane at EUR 1,522, which is what a consolidation and re-consignment channel looks like rather than a producer selling its own output. Treat it as the deepest and cheapest route into the EU market, not as a supply option that can be qualified independently of the material behind it.
The US lane is the specialty lane: EUR 1,522 per tonne, 32.0% above the UK lane and 29.3% above the 2026 all-origin average of EUR 1,177, on 6,000–6,500 tonnes a year — the price of a qualified non-Asian origin in a book where the alternative is a Chinese parcel that may or may not arrive.
The world outside the EU: China doubled its export book while the US left
China’s reported aniline exports went from 97,936 tonnes in 2023 to 213,410 in 2024 and 367,599 in 2025, while the average export unit value fell from USD 1,382 to USD 1,028, 25.6% lower. The United States moved the other way: 57,781 tonnes in 2023, 32,416 in 2024 and 2,553 tonnes in 2025. Japan and Korea each reported under 2,500 tonnes for 2025.
| Reporter | 2023 (t) | 2024 (t) | 2025 (t) | Unit value 2025 (USD/t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 97,936 | 213,410 | 367,599 | 1,028 |
| United States | 57,781 | 32,416 | 2,553 | 1,442 |
| Japan | n/r | n/r | 2,482 | 1,513 |
| Korea | n/r | n/r | 1,986 | 1,002 |
| India | n/r | n/r | n/r | n/r |
Two things follow. The 2025 jump in China-origin arrivals into the EU was part of a Chinese export push of 367,599 tonnes, five times what Europe took, priced 25.6% below its 2023 level; Europe absorbed 17.4% of China’s reported 2025 exports. And the US lane that supplied 16,969 tonnes to the EU in 2024 had already been cut to 6,511 tonnes in 2025, the year US reported exports fell to 2,553 tonnes.
That US number does not mirror: the EU recorded 6,511 tonnes of imports from the United States in 2025 while the United States reported 2,553 tonnes of exports to the world. 2025 is a first-reported year and the US figure is provisional; it is shown because the direction, not the level, is what the EU series corroborates.
What the Chinese parcels did in 2026
Chinese-origin aniline cleared EU customs in January (7,000 tonnes), February (2,385) and March (8,199), then recorded nothing in April, May or June. It came back in July with 3,821 tonnes at EUR 1,505 per tonne and in August with 2,008 tonnes at EUR 1,798 — 32.8% above the 2025 China average of EUR 1,354.
That gap is not a customs artefact. The UK lane kept running through the same months: 30,716 tonnes in April at EUR 1,096, 15,844 in May at EUR 1,210, 16,292 in June at EUR 1,151, then 11,783 in July at EUR 1,388 and 29,202 in August at EUR 1,202. July’s spike to EUR 1,415 was a month with both a high-priced Chinese parcel and a high-priced UK parcel; August’s fall to EUR 1,241 was a month in which 29,202 tonnes of UK material at EUR 1,202 swamped 2,008 tonnes of Chinese material at EUR 1,798. August’s lower average is a weighting effect, not a price cut.
China sets the price, Europe books it two months later
| Quote date | Market price (RMB/t) | Change as reported in source |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | 8,845 | −3.47% year on year |
| 2026-05-04 | 11,662 | +66.01% year on year |
| 2026-07-24 | 11,525 | +59.08% year on year |
| 2026-08-31 | 13,425 | +79.14% year on year, measured on 4 September |
| 2026-10-16 | 16,100 | +101.38% year on year |
SunSirs’ weekly reviews put Chinese aniline at RMB 8,845 per tonne in mid-February, still 3.47% below the year-earlier level, then RMB 11,662 in early May (+66.01% year on year), RMB 11,525 in late July (+59.08%), RMB 13,425 at the end of August (+79.14%) and RMB 16,100 on 16 October (+101.38%). The reviews attribute the run to benzene rising on low port inventories and firm crude, and to maintenance at named plants — Shanxi Tianji and Jilin Xuyang Cornell are cited in the October review. The same reviews report downstream buyers resisting the level and buying only for immediate needs, a cost-push move rather than a demand-led one.
Transmission into EU customs values takes roughly two to three months. EU import unit values were flat at EUR 1,091–1,110 from February to April 2026 while Chinese quotes were already rising, then turned in May (EUR 1,211, +10.4% on April), continued in June (EUR 1,232) and peaked in July (EUR 1,415). The Chinese series did not peak in July; it rose another 39.7% between late July and mid-October.
Analysis: what the August print does and does not say
Analysis. The August decline in the EU unit value is composition. The two origin prices inside the month are both above the twelve-month average: UK material at EUR 1,202 and Chinese material at EUR 1,798, against an average of EUR 1,156. Any buyer reading EUR 1,241 as a softening market is reading the weighting, not the price.
Outlook. Three things decide the next two prints, and only one is European. First, the Chinese level: at RMB 16,100 on 16 October, up 82.0% from mid-February, the cost floor behind imported material has moved again since the July EU print, so September and October EU unit values should be higher unless the origin mix shifts further towards the UK lane. Second, Chinese availability: the April–June gap shows that when the domestic market runs, export parcels stop rather than get priced. Third, European demand: imports in January–August 2026 were 4.3% below the same months of 2025 on a unit value 3.0% lower, so volume is not responding to price in either direction. Weak downstream demand and a rising cost base can coexist for a quarter or two, as the 2023–2025 annual series already shows.
What the data does not support is a supply-normalisation story: the EU imported three to three-and-a-half tonnes for every tonne it exported in each of the last three years, the export book is shrinking and getting cheaper, and the only origin that grew in 2025 has just halved.
What to do before the next tender
Do not index to the twelve-month average: at EUR 1,156 it sits 20.2% below the July print and roughly two months behind the Chinese cost base. Index to the monthly declared series and accept its six-to-eight-week publication lag explicitly in the contract.
Price by origin, not by blend. The 2026 spread between the UK lane (EUR 1,153) and the US lane (EUR 1,522) is 32.0%, and the Chinese parcel that returned in August came in at EUR 1,798. A single blended quote hides a range wide enough to change a tender outcome. Qualify a second origin this winter: the April–June gap in Chinese arrivals is the clearest evidence here that the cheapest origin can stop for a quarter without notice, and specification approval takes longer than a price cycle.
The upstream and downstream molecules are covered on the same basis: aniline market data for the product page, nitrobenzene for the immediate precursor, benzene and the benzene trade series for the feedstock SunSirs names in every review, and MDI trade data for the downstream isocyanate that absorbs most of this molecule.
Data limitations
Customs record only what crosses a border. Aniline consumed where it is made never appears, and intra-EU27 rows measure dispatches between member states, which may be production, storage or trading positions rather than demand.
HS 292141 covers aniline and its salts, without a grade split, so a single large parcel moves a monthly average. Declared import values include freight and insurance while export values generally do not, which is part of why the export unit value (EUR 1,068 for the twelve months) sits below the import unit value and is not a margin.
The UK lane at 84.5% of 2026 imports is a declared origin, not evidence of UK production at that scale; the series cannot separate UK-made from UK-consolidated material. August is provisional, and August intra-EU27 dispatches are not yet published, so no August production-versus-import split is possible.
The Chinese price table is a domestic quotation, tax-inclusive, from a commercial price service sampled weekly; it is not an export price, is not converted into euros, and is not compared arithmetically with the customs unit values above. No subscription assessment, no interpolated series and no estimated figure is used anywhere in this article.
Data sources
- Eurostat Comext DS-045409, dataset page — https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/DS-045409/default/table (accessed 2026-10-28)
- Eurostat Comext API, EU27 monthly extra-EU imports of HS 292141, 2024-09 to 2026-08 — https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?format=JSON&freq=M&reporter=EU27_2020&partner=EXT_EU27_2020&product=292141&flow=1&indicators=VALUE_IN_EUROS&indicators=QUANTITY_IN_100KG&sinceTimePeriod=2024-09 (accessed 2026-10-28)
- Eurostat Comext API, EU27 monthly extra-EU exports of HS 292141, 2024-09 to 2026-08 — https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?format=JSON&freq=M&reporter=EU27_2020&partner=EXT_EU27_2020&product=292141&flow=2&indicators=VALUE_IN_EUROS&indicators=QUANTITY_IN_100KG&sinceTimePeriod=2024-09 (accessed 2026-10-28)
- Eurostat Comext API, EU27 annual extra-EU imports of HS 292141, 2020 to 2025 — https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?format=JSON&freq=A&reporter=EU27_2020&partner=EXT_EU27_2020&product=292141&flow=1&indicators=VALUE_IN_EUROS&indicators=QUANTITY_IN_100KG&sinceTimePeriod=2020 (accessed 2026-10-28)
- Eurostat Comext API, EU27 monthly imports of HS 292141 by origin, 2024-01 to 2026-08 — https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?format=JSON&freq=M&reporter=EU27_2020&product=292141&flow=1&indicators=VALUE_IN_EUROS&indicators=QUANTITY_IN_100KG&sinceTimePeriod=2024-01 (accessed 2026-10-28)
- UN Comtrade preview API, HS 292141 exports, China (156), 2025 — https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?includeDesc=true&reporterCode=156&period=2025&flowCode=X&cmdCode=292141&partnerCode=0 (accessed 2026-10-28)
- UN Comtrade preview API, HS 292141 exports, China (156), 2024 — https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?includeDesc=true&reporterCode=156&period=2024&flowCode=X&cmdCode=292141&partnerCode=0 (accessed 2026-10-28)
- UN Comtrade preview API, HS 292141 exports, United States (842), 2025 — https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?includeDesc=true&reporterCode=842&period=2025&flowCode=X&cmdCode=292141&partnerCode=0 (accessed 2026-10-28)
- UN Comtrade preview API, HS 292141 exports, United States (842), 2024 — https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?includeDesc=true&reporterCode=842&period=2024&flowCode=X&cmdCode=292141&partnerCode=0 (accessed 2026-10-28)
- SunSirs, aniline market stable at high levels, 13 February 2026 — https://www.sunsirs.com/uk/detail_news-30657.html (accessed 2026-10-28)
- SunSirs, aniline market temporarily stable, week of 4–8 May 2026 — https://www.sunsirs.com/uk/detail_news-32680.html (accessed 2026-10-28)
- SunSirs, aniline market continued its upward trend, 20–24 July 2026 — https://www.sunsirs.com/commodity-news/petail-34761.html (accessed 2026-10-28)
- SunSirs, aniline prices rose sharply, 31 August–4 September 2026 — https://www.sunsirs.com/commodity-news/petail-35893.html (accessed 2026-10-28)
- SunSirs, aniline market rose at higher levels, 12–16 October 2026 — https://www.sunsirs.com/commodity-news/petail-36919.html (accessed 2026-10-28)
If you need the full monthly matrix behind these tables — every origin by month, with volumes, values and unit values, plus the same cut for nitrobenzene, benzene and MDI — you can request a sample or a custom cut.