What is Polyethylene Market Analysis: Price Trend, Trade Data and Packaging Demand
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Latest published data (2025-08 to 2026-07) — Sentiment: Neutral
The most recent published customs observation for HS 390110,390120,390140 is 2026-07 at USD 1,345.87/ton, -10.5% against the previous month and +19.1% against 2025-08.
Reported volume across the fixed 19-economy panel was 26,035,223 tonnes over the window, 2,169,602 tonnes a month on average, and the three-month trend is +6.0%.
Next 1–3 Months — Outlook
This page is refreshed from public customs statistics rather than paid price assessments, so the next revision will roll in each newly published month for HS 390110,390120,390140. Direction shown here is a reading of published customs unit values, not a forecast.
Key Market Impact
Customs unit values for this heading are the single most checkable price signal available without a subscription: they combine the product mix actually crossing borders, the average contract level behind those shipments, and freight-relevant volume. Buyers and sellers using this page should treat them as the trade-weighted baseline for the heading, and read the coverage note above before applying them to a single grade.
How About the Price?
Data source: UN Comtrade public trade statistics (https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202607&cmdCode=390110,390120,390140&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true) | Last updated: 2026-10-30
Price Trajectory, latest 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07)
The monthly customs export unit value for HS 390110,390120,390140 moved from USD 1,129.74/ton in 2025-08 to USD 1,345.87/ton in 2026-07 (+19.1% across the window). The window high was USD 1,521.26/ton in 2026-02 and the low USD 941.32/ton in 2025-11. Three-month averages put the latest quarter +6.0% against the previous one, which is classified here as neutral. The heading-level series is volatile: the largest month-on-month move in the window was +34.2% between 2026-01 and 2026-02. In that pair reported value moved -3.2% while reported tonnage moved -27.9%, so the unit-value move reflects the mix of grades and the size of shipments filed under this heading rather than a single quoted price, and the three-month average is read as traded-mix movement rather than as a price signal.
The same panel reported USD 31,969.4 million of export value on 26,035,223 tonnes over the twelve months, an average of 2,169,602 tonnes a month. Values are customs returns for the stated HS heading, so they capture the traded mix of that heading rather than a single quoted grade.
The EU side of the same market is one month fresher than the panel above: Eurostat Comext records EU27 imports of HS 390110,390120,390140 from outside the EU at USD 1,517.54/ton in 2026-08 (EUR 1,309.00/ton at the ECB monthly reference rate), -1.8% against 2026-07, on 396,122 tonnes; the twelve months to 2026-08 totalled 4,547,051 tonnes. On the 11 months the two datasets share (2025-09 to 2026-07), three-month blocks that far apart moved +43.4% on the export panel and +28.7% on the EU import side, so the two agree on direction. Import values are recorded on a CIF-type basis by a single bloc, so the level is not comparable with the export panel — the comparison above is directional.
2026-08 is not used yet: 11 of the listed reporters had filed both value and net weight for this heading when this page was rebuilt, against the 19 that make up the locked panel used here, and 2026-09 had no filings at all. Mixing a partly-filed month into a fixed panel would move the unit value through composition alone, so the window is held at 2026-07 until the panel for 2026-08 is complete.
This basket combines LDPE (390110), HDPE (390120) and LLDPE (390140), so the unit value is a density- and grade-mixed figure rather than a single film-grade quote; the grade split inside the basket is not visible in the published total.
Supply-side factors
- Fixed reporting panel of 19 economies: AUS (36), BRA (76), CAN (124), CZE (203), DNK (208), FIN (246), DEU (276), GRC (300), GTM (320), HUN (348), IDN (360), IRL (372), MYS (458), MEX (484), NLD (528), PRT (620), IND (699), SWE (752), USA (842). The panel is held constant in every month of the window so month-to-month movement is not a composition effect.
- Monthly unit value range over the window: USD 941.32 to USD 1,521.26/ton.
- Latest month, 2026-07: USD 1,345.87/ton, -10.5% against the previous month, on 2,158,086 tonnes.
Demand-side factors
- Polyethylene demand is led by film and packaging, then pipe, blow moulding and injection moulding, with HDPE and LLDPE competing for many of the same converting lines, so the basket value tracks the grade mix shipped as much as the monomer cost behind it.
- Related market pages on this site: Ethylene, Polypropylene and Vinyl Acetate — Ethylene for the upstream monomer; Polypropylene for the competing polyolefin; Vinyl Acetate for the comonomer in EVA grades.
Basis: these are customs unit values for the stated HS heading, not quoted spot, contract or assessed prices, and no paid price assessment is used or redistributed on this page. Every figure can be re-checked at the API links listed at the end of this page.
Need the supplier landscape, contract structure or a delivered-cost build-up behind this heading? Request a sample report or a custom cut.
Substitutes & Alternatives
| Substitute | Replacement Scenario / How It Substitutes |
|---|---|
| Polypropylene (PP) | Replaces HDPE in rigid packaging, containers, caps, and automotive parts where higher stiffness and heat resistance (up to 130°C) are needed. Drop-in replacement in many injection-molded applications; requires mold and processing temperature adjustments. Also competes with LDPE/LLDPE in flexible packaging films, though PP films are stiffer and clearer. |
| Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) | Substitutes HDPE in beverage bottles and food containers where superior gas barrier properties, clarity, and higher rigidity are required. PET bottles are a direct functional replacement for HDPE bottles in carbonated drink and water packaging. Requires different blow-molding equipment (injection stretch blow molding vs. extrusion blow molding). |
| Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) | Replaces HDPE in pressure pipes, conduits, and wire insulation where flame retardancy or rigidity is prioritized. PVC pipes are widely used as alternatives to HDPE pipes in municipal water and drainage systems. Substitution is application-specific; PVC is not suitable where chemical resistance to chlorinated solvents is needed. |
| Polystyrene (PS) / Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) | Substitutes LDPE and HDPE in rigid food packaging trays, disposable cups, and protective foam packaging. EPS replaces PE foam in thermal insulation and cushioning applications. Generally a cost-competitive alternative but with lower chemical resistance and greater brittleness. |
| Bioplastics (PLA, PHA, bio-PE) | Emerging substitutes for conventional PE in single-use packaging, films, and bags, driven by sustainability regulations. Bio-based PE (produced from sugarcane ethanol-derived ethylene) is a drop-in replacement with identical properties. PLA and PHA require reformulation and are not drop-in but serve the same end-use markets in compostable packaging. |
| Paper and Paperboard | Replaces LDPE and HDPE in carrier bags, wrapping, and some rigid packaging as part of plastic reduction initiatives. Substitution is partial and application-dependent; paper lacks the moisture barrier and flexibility of PE films and typically requires coatings or laminates to match performance, increasing cost. |
| Aluminum (foil / containers) | Substitutes PE in barrier packaging, flexible pouches, and food trays where superior oxygen and moisture barrier, heat resistance, or recyclability are required. Aluminum foil laminates replace PE-based multilayer films in retort pouches and pharmaceutical blister packs. Higher cost and density limit broader substitution. |
| Polycarbonate (PC) | Replaces HDPE in applications requiring optical clarity, high impact resistance, and elevated service temperatures, such as reusable water bottles, safety glazing, and electronic housings. Not a cost-competitive general substitute; used only where PE's mechanical or thermal limits are exceeded. |
Related PetroApex Market Pages
Regulatory Status
| Region | Regulation / Policy Name | Issuing Authority | Year (enacted or latest revision) | Key Requirement / Threshold | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU | REACH Regulation (EC) No 1907/2006 | European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) | 2007 (ongoing) | Registration for substances manufactured or imported into the EU in quantities of 1 tonne or more per year; Polymers generally exempt from registration | https://environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/chemicals/reach-regulation_en; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Registration,_Evaluation,_Authorisation_and_Restriction_of_Chemicals |
| EU | Single-Use Plastics Directive (Directive (EU) 2019/904) | European Commission | 2019 (amendments ongoing) | Measures to reduce consumption of single-use plastic cups and food containers by measurable quantitative reduction by 2026 compared to 2022; separate collection targets for plastic bottles (77% by 2025, 90% by 2029); recycled content in PET beverage bottles (25% from 2025) | https://environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/plastics/single-use-plastics_en |
| US | National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) for Chemical Manufacturing Area Sources | US EPA | 2025 (proposal) | Emission standards for hazardous air pollutants from area sources including certain chemical manufacturing processes (including polyethylene-related) | https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/22/2025-00685/national-emission-standards-for-hazardous-air-pollutants-chemical-manufacturing-area-sources |
| US | Standards of Performance for the Polymer Manufacturing Industry | US EPA | 2021 (ongoing monitoring) | Limit volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions from certain process sources in new, modified, and reconstructed affected facilities | https://19january2021snapshot.epa.gov/stationary-sources-air-pollution/polymer-manufacturing-industry-standards-performance-volatile_.html |
| China | Technical Guidelines for Environmental Protection in Coal Chemical Projects | Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) | 2016 (ongoing compliance) | Environmental check and acceptance requirements for coal-based production projects, including emissions and effluent controls for polyethylene production | https://english.mee.gov.cn/Resources/standards/others1/Technical_guideline_check/201603/t20160303_331191.shtml |
| Global | UN Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution (INC sessions) | UN Environment Programme (UNEP) | 2022 (ongoing; INC-5.2 August 2025) | No final treaty; negotiations ongoing with focus on reducing plastic production, phasing out harmful plastics, and addressing chemical safety (no binding requirements specific to polyethylene yet) | https://www.unep.org/inc-plastic-pollution |
| Brazil (global trade) | Anti-Dumping Measures on Polyethylene Resin Imports | Brazilian Department of Trade Remedies (DECOM) / Camex | 2025 (provisional; final May 2026) | Provisional anti-dumping duties on polyethylene resin imports from United States and Canada; final duties confirmed at $199.04/metric ton (US) and $238.49/metric ton (Canada) for five years | https://www.trade.gov/brazil-issues-preliminary-determination-antidumping-duty-investigation-polyethylene-resin-united; |
| US | TSCA Inventory (Toxic Substances Control Act) | US EPA | 1976 (ongoing; polyethylene listed) | Polyethylene (CAS 9002-88-4) is listed on the active TSCA inventory; no specific registration or restrictions for the substance itself (polymers generally exempt from detailed requirements) | https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/22/2025-00685/national-emission-standards-for-hazardous-air-pollutants-chemical-manufacturing-area-sources; SDS references (verified via EPA inventory) |
Key Influence Events
Polyethylene (PE) is a thermoplastic polymer produced by the addition polymerization of ethylene (CH2=CH2) monomers. It is the world's most widely produced synthetic plastic, available in several distinct grades differentiated by density, molecular weight, and chain branching. The main commercial grades include High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE), Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE), and Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE), each offering different balances of stiffness, flexibility, toughness, and chemical resistance. Polyethylene is used across an enormous range of applications including packaging films, bottles, pipes, wire insulation, geomembranes, and consumer goods. Its properties are tuned through catalyst selection, polymerization conditions, and the incorporation of alpha-olefin comonomers.
Top Countries Production Capacity
Production Process of Polyethylene Market Analysis: Price Trend, Trade Data and Packaging Demand
Polyethylene (PE) is a thermoplastic polymer produced by the addition polymerization of ethylene (CH2=CH2) monomers. It is the world's most widely produced synthetic plastic, available in several distinct grades differentiated by density, molecular weight, and chain branching. The main commercial grades include High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE), Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE), and Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE), each offering different balances of stiffness, flexibility, toughness, and chemical resistance. Polyethylene is used across an enormous range of applications including packaging films, bottles, pipes, wire insulation, geomembranes, and consumer goods. Its properties are tuned through catalyst selection, polymerization conditions, and the incorporation of alpha-olefin comonomers.
Specs & Grades
| Grade | Property | Typical Value / Range | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|
| LDPE | Density | 0.910 – 0.940 | g/cm³ |
| LDPE | Tensile Strength (yield) | 8 – 20 | MPa |
| LDPE | Elongation at Break | 100 – 650 | % |
| LDPE | Vicat Softening Point | 85 – 100 | °C |
| HDPE | Density | 0.941 – 0.965 | g/cm³ |
| HDPE | Tensile Strength (yield) | 20 – 37 | MPa |
| HDPE | Elongation at Break | 500 – 1200 | % |
| HDPE | Vicat Softening Point | 120 – 135 | °C |
| LLDPE | Density | 0.915 – 0.940 | g/cm³ |
| LLDPE | Tensile Strength (yield) | 10 – 25 | MPa |
| LLDPE | Elongation at Break | 300 – 900 | % |
| UHMWPE | Density | 0.930 – 0.945 | g/cm³ |
| UHMWPE | Molecular Weight | 3,500,000 – 10,000,000 | g/mol |
| UHMWPE | Impact Strength (Charpy, notched) | No break | kJ/m² |
| All grades | Dielectric Strength | 18 – 27 | MV/m |
| All grades | Service Temperature (continuous) | -50 to +80 (LDPE/LLDPE); up to 120 (HDPE) | °C |
Data Sources
Price and volume figures are derived from the directly verified public sources below. The customs unit values are USD/ton; they are not subscription price assessments. Grade-level specifications are not restated here: confirm them with the supplier. Every monthly endpoint used for the series on this page is listed below, together with the HS classification reference.
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202508&cmdCode=390110,390120,390140&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202509&cmdCode=390110,390120,390140&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202510&cmdCode=390110,390120,390140&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202511&cmdCode=390110,390120,390140&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202512&cmdCode=390110,390120,390140&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202601&cmdCode=390110,390120,390140&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202602&cmdCode=390110,390120,390140&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202603&cmdCode=390110,390120,390140&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202604&cmdCode=390110,390120,390140&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202605&cmdCode=390110,390120,390140&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202606&cmdCode=390110,390120,390140&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202607&cmdCode=390110,390120,390140&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/files/v1/app/reference/HS.json
- Eurostat Comext DS-045409, EU27 extra-EU imports, monthly: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?format=JSON&freq=M&reporter=EU27_2020&partner=EXT_EU27_2020&flow=1&indicators=VALUE_IN_EUROS&indicators=QUANTITY_IN_100KG&product=390110&sinceTimePeriod=2025-09
- Eurostat Comext DS-045409, EU27 extra-EU imports, monthly: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?format=JSON&freq=M&reporter=EU27_2020&partner=EXT_EU27_2020&flow=1&indicators=VALUE_IN_EUROS&indicators=QUANTITY_IN_100KG&product=390120&sinceTimePeriod=2025-09
- Eurostat Comext DS-045409, EU27 extra-EU imports, monthly: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?format=JSON&freq=M&reporter=EU27_2020&partner=EXT_EU27_2020&flow=1&indicators=VALUE_IN_EUROS&indicators=QUANTITY_IN_100KG&product=390140&sinceTimePeriod=2025-09
- ECB euro reference rate, monthly average (EXR/M.USD.EUR.SP00.A): https://data-api.ecb.europa.eu/service/data/EXR/M.USD.EUR.SP00.A?format=csvdata&startPeriod=2025-09&endPeriod=2026-08
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