Ethylene Market Analysis: Price Trend, Trade Data and Polyethylene Demand

Data source: UN Comtrade public trade statistics (https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202607&cmdCode=290121&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true) | Last updated: 2026-10-30

Price Trajectory, latest 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07)

The monthly customs export unit value for HS 290121 moved from USD 855.42/ton in 2025-08 to USD 1,025.05/ton in 2026-07 (+19.8% across the window). The window high was USD 1,134.97/ton in 2026-06 and the low USD 696.16/ton in 2026-02. Three-month averages put the latest quarter +28.5% against the previous one, which is classified here as bullish.

The same panel reported USD 2,050.3 million of export value on 2,323,696 tonnes over the twelve months, an average of 193,641 tonnes a month. Values are customs returns for the stated HS heading, so they capture the traded mix of that heading rather than a single quoted grade.

The EU side of the same market is one month fresher than the panel above: Eurostat Comext records EU27 imports of HS 290121 from outside the EU at USD 979.98/ton in 2026-08 (EUR 845.31/ton at the ECB monthly reference rate), -11.7% against 2026-07, on 79,625 tonnes; the twelve months to 2026-08 totalled 1,611,455 tonnes. On the 11 months the two datasets share (2025-09 to 2026-07), three-month blocks that far apart moved +29.3% on the export panel and +18.2% on the EU import side, so the two agree on direction. Import values are recorded on a CIF-type basis by a single bloc, so the level is not comparable with the export panel — the comparison above is directional.

2026-08 is not used yet: 1 of the listed reporters had filed both value and net weight for this heading when this page was rebuilt, against the 7 that make up the locked panel used here, and 2026-09 had no filings at all. Mixing a partly-filed month into a fixed panel would move the unit value through composition alone, so the window is held at 2026-07 until the panel for 2026-08 is complete.

HS 290121 carries ethylene only, so the series is product-level; it does not separate polymer-grade from chemical-grade ethylene, and because ethylene is normally moved by pipeline, only the seaborne balance appears in customs data.

Supply-side factors

• Fixed reporting panel of 7 economies: CZE (203), FIN (246), DEU (276), IDN (360), NLD (528), SWE (752), USA (842). The panel is held constant in every month of the window so month-to-month movement is not a composition effect.
• Monthly unit value range over the window: USD 696.16 to USD 1,134.97/ton.
• Latest month, 2026-07: USD 1,025.05/ton, -9.7% against the previous month, on 185,076 tonnes.

Demand-side factors

• Ethylene demand is led by polyethylene, then ethylene oxide and glycols, ethylene dichloride for PVC, vinyl acetate and alpha-olefins. Cracked from naphtha, ethane or LPG, it is the hinge between the refinery, the cracker and the polymer chain, so derivative plant outages move the traded balance fast.
• Related market pages on this site: Polyethylene, Ethylene Oxide and Vinyl Acetate — Polyethylene for the largest downstream outlet; Ethylene Oxide for the second-largest outlet, into glycols; Vinyl Acetate for the smaller derivative outlet.

Basis: these are customs unit values for the stated HS heading, not quoted spot, contract or assessed prices, and no paid price assessment is used or redistributed on this page. Every figure can be re-checked at the API links listed at the end of this page.

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