What is Propylene Feedstock Gas Market Analysis: Price Trend, Trade Data and Polypropylene Demand
Analysts Sentiment
Bullish
Neutral
Bearish
What's driving sentiment this week:
Latest published month (2026-07) — Sentiment: Bullish
The most recent published customs observation for HS 290122 is 2026-07 at USD 1,106.34/ton, -6.8% against the previous month and +24.7% against 2025-08.
Reported volume across the fixed 9-economy panel was 1,931,288 tonnes over the window, 160,941 tonnes a month on average, and the three-month trend is +21.6%.
Next 1–3 Months — Outlook
This page is refreshed from public customs statistics rather than paid price assessments, so the next revision will roll in each newly published month for HS 290122. Direction shown here is a reading of published customs unit values, not a forecast.
Key Market Impact
Customs unit values for this heading are the single most checkable price signal available without a subscription: they combine the product mix actually crossing borders, the average contract level behind those shipments and freight-relevant volume. Treat them as the trade-weighted baseline for the heading, and read the coverage note above before applying them to a single grade.
How About the Price?
Data source: UN Comtrade public trade statistics (https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202607&cmdCode=290122&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true) | Last updated: 2026-11-06
Price Trajectory, latest 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07)
The monthly customs export unit value for HS 290122 moved from USD 887.10/ton in 2025-08 to USD 1,106.34/ton in 2026-07 (+24.7% across the window). The window high was USD 1,376.05/ton in 2026-05 and the low USD 815.26/ton in 2025-11. Three-month averages put the latest quarter +21.6% against the previous one, which is classified here as bullish.
The same panel reported USD 1,918.1 million of export value on 1,931,288 tonnes over the twelve months, an average of 160,941 tonnes a month. Values are customs returns for the stated HS heading, so they capture the traded mix of that heading rather than a single quoted grade.
The EU side of the same heading is one month fresher than the panel above: Eurostat Comext records EU27 imports of HS 290122 from outside the EU at USD 1,108.66/ton in 2026-08 (EUR 956.31/ton at the ECB monthly reference rate), -24.0% against 2026-07, on 30,867 tonnes; the twelve months to 2026-08 totalled 220,820 tonnes. On the 12 months the two datasets share (2025-08 to 2026-07), three-month blocks that far apart moved +40.8% on the export panel and +61.0% on the EU import side, so the two agree on direction. Import values are recorded on a CIF-type basis by a single bloc, so the level is not comparable with the export panel — the comparison above is directional.
2026-08 is deliberately not in the series: of the 9 economies that make up this page's fixed panel, 6 had filed both value and net weight for this heading when the page was rebuilt on 2026-11-06 (the heading drew 14 filers in total that month); neither 2026-09 nor 2026-10 drew a single filing for this heading. Splicing a partly-filed month onto a fixed panel would move the unit value through composition alone, so the window stays at 2026-07 until the whole panel for 2026-08 has reported.
This page tracks the propylene molecule itself: HS 290122 carries propene only, and the refineries and crackers that make it sell it as a gas or a pressurised liquid rather than as a branded product. The same heading is the series behind the dedicated propylene page on this site, so the two pages show one customs series from two angles: that page follows the monomer market, this one follows the feedstock balance at the refinery and cracker gate. Pipeline and inter-site transfers never enter customs data, so only the seaborne and cross-border balance appears here.
Supply-side factors
- Fixed reporting panel of 9 economies: CAN (124), CZE (203), DEU (276), GRC (300), IDN (360), MYS (458), NLD (528), SWE (752), USA (842). The panel is held constant in every month of the window so month-to-month movement is not a composition effect.
- Monthly unit value range over the window: USD 815.26 to USD 1,376.05/ton.
- Latest month, 2026-07: USD 1,106.34/ton, -6.8% against the previous month, on 141,442 tonnes.
Demand-side factors
- Propylene as a feedstock gas is priced off the marginal source: refinery FCC by-product, steam-cracker co-product or on-purpose propane dehydrogenation. Because it is costly to store and move, the traded balance reacts to cracker outages and PDH run rates rather than to polymer demand alone, and polymer-grade material commands a premium over refinery-grade that customs data cannot show.
- Related market pages on this site: Propylene (the monomer page built on the same heading), Propane (the PDH feedstock), Polypropylene (the largest outlet for the molecule), Propylene Oxide (the chemical-grade outlet for the same propylene).
Basis: these are customs unit values for the stated HS heading, not quoted spot, contract or assessed prices, and no paid price assessment is used or redistributed on this page. Every figure can be re-checked at the API links listed at the end of this page.
Need the supplier landscape, contract structure or a delivered-cost build-up behind this heading? Request a sample report or a custom cut.
Substitutes & Alternatives
| Substitute | Replacement Scenario / How It Substitutes |
|---|---|
| Ethylene | In polyolefin applications, ethylene-based polymers (HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE) can substitute polypropylene in films, packaging, and molded parts where stiffness and heat resistance requirements are less stringent. Requires reformulation of the polymer blend and adjustment of processing conditions; not a drop-in replacement at the monomer level but a functional substitute at the end-product level. |
| Butylene / Butene-1 (C4 olefins) | In oxo-synthesis (hydroformylation) applications, butylene can substitute propylene to produce C5 aldehydes and alcohols instead of C4 oxo-products. Also used as a co-monomer in polyethylene in place of propylene-derived co-monomers. Partial substitution in specific refinery alkylation and oligomerization units. |
| Methanol (via MTO/MTP route) | Methanol-to-olefins (MTO) and methanol-to-propylene (MTP) processes over SAPO-34 or ZSM-5 catalysts convert methanol directly into propylene-rich olefin streams, effectively substituting conventional propylene feedstock gas in downstream polymerization and chemical synthesis. Used in coal-to-chemicals complexes in China as an alternative supply chain to naphtha cracking. |
| Bio-based Propylene (bio-propylene) | Produced by dehydration of bio-based propanol or by catalytic conversion of bio-ethanol or glycerol. Can substitute fossil-derived propylene feedstock gas in polypropylene production and chemical synthesis with minimal process changes downstream, as the molecule is chemically identical. Currently limited in scale and higher in cost but used where sustainability certification is required. |
| Ethanol (bio-route to ethylene, then metathesis) | Bio-ethanol dehydrated to ethylene, followed by ethylene-butylene metathesis, can produce propylene as a substitute supply. Used in regions with abundant sugarcane or corn feedstocks (Brazil, USA) to partially replace fossil propylene in chemical-grade applications. |
| Acrylonitrile from alternative routes | In acrylonitrile production (a major propylene derivative), INEOS and other producers have explored propane ammoxidation as a direct substitute for propylene ammoxidation (Sohio process), bypassing the need for propylene feedstock gas entirely and using cheaper propane as the direct feedstock. |
| Recycled Polypropylene (rPP) | Post-consumer recycled polypropylene substitutes virgin propylene feedstock gas at the polymer level in packaging, automotive, and consumer goods applications. Reduces demand for virgin propylene without requiring changes to downstream fabrication equipment in most cases; quality limitations restrict use in high-performance or food-contact applications. |
Related PetroApex Market Pages
- Propylene
- Polypropylene
- Acrylonitrile
- Acrylic Acid
- Propylene Oxide — the chemical-grade outlet for the same propylene.
Regulatory Status
| Region | Regulation / Policy Name | Issuing Authority | Year (enacted or latest revision) | Key Requirement / Threshold | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Petroleum Refineries (40 CFR Part 63 Subpart CC) | US EPA | 1995 (latest revisions 2019) | Flaring of refinery gases (including propylene feedstocks routed to fuel gas systems) requires compliance with emission control standards; flares receiving gas from fuel gas systems subject to §63.670 on and after January 30, 2019 | 40 CFR Part 63 Subpart CC; US EPA |
| United States | Propane (UN1075 / UN1978, Petroleum gases, liquefied) | US PHMSA | 49 CFR 172.101 Hazardous Materials Table (latest) | UN number 1075 or 1978; flammable gas (Class 2.1); Special Provision 19 allows 10-year pressure retest exception for cargo tanks in dedicated propane service only (does not apply to propylene) | 49 CFR 172.101; PHMSA |
| China | Coal-to-Olefins (CTO) and Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH) Plant Emissions Standards | Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) | 2012 (implementation ongoing) | New plants: NOx emission limits equivalent to best available control; existing plants have 2.5-year grace period from January 1, 2012 for full compliance | MEE National Pollutant Emission Standards (detailed in 2012 law); Ministry of Ecology and Environment |
| European Union | Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) | ECHA | 2006 (latest revisions) | Propylene (CAS 115-07-1) subject to registration and potential restrictions on uses; no specific numerical threshold for feedstock gas but classified under chemical safety directives | ECHA REACH database; European Chemicals Agency |
| United States | Reciprocal Tariffs on Imports (including LPG/propane and related feedstocks) | US Department of the Treasury / Office of the US Trade Representative | 2025 (imposed April 5, 2025) | Reciprocal tariffs up to 84% (with pauses and exemptions for USMCA-compliant propane from Canada and certain energy products); impacts cross-border LPG/propane trade flows | Treasury and USTR announcements; official US government trade policy notices |
Key Influence Events
Propylene feedstock gas (also called propylene or propene) is a colorless, flammable gaseous olefin with the chemical formula C3H6, consisting of a three-carbon chain with one carbon-carbon double bond. It is one of the most important petrochemical building blocks in the world, produced primarily as a co-product of steam cracking of naphtha or ethane and as a by-product of fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) in oil refining. Propylene feedstock gas is supplied in various purity grades—polymer grade, chemical grade, and refinery grade—and serves as the primary raw material for polypropylene, acrylonitrile, propylene oxide, oxo-alcohols, acrylic acid, cumene, and numerous other downstream chemicals and polymers.
Top Countries Production Capacity
Production Process of Propylene Feedstock Gas Market Analysis: Price Trend, Trade Data and Polypropylene Demand
Propylene feedstock gas (also called propylene or propene) is a colorless, flammable gaseous olefin with the chemical formula C3H6, consisting of a three-carbon chain with one carbon-carbon double bond. It is one of the most important petrochemical building blocks in the world, produced primarily as a co-product of steam cracking of naphtha or ethane and as a by-product of fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) in oil refining. Propylene feedstock gas is supplied in various purity grades—polymer grade, chemical grade, and refinery grade—and serves as the primary raw material for polypropylene, acrylonitrile, propylene oxide, oxo-alcohols, acrylic acid, cumene, and numerous other downstream chemicals and polymers.
Specs & Grades
| Property | Typical Value / Range | Unit | Grade |
|---|
Data Sources
Price and volume figures are derived from the directly verified public sources below. The customs unit values are USD/ton and are not subscription price assessments. Grade-level specifications are not restated here: confirm them with the supplier. Every monthly endpoint used for the series on this page is listed below, together with the EU cross-check, the exchange rate used to express it in dollars and the HS classification reference.
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202508&cmdCode=290122&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202509&cmdCode=290122&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202510&cmdCode=290122&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202511&cmdCode=290122&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202512&cmdCode=290122&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202601&cmdCode=290122&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202602&cmdCode=290122&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202603&cmdCode=290122&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202604&cmdCode=290122&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202605&cmdCode=290122&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202606&cmdCode=290122&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202607&cmdCode=290122&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?format=JSON&freq=M&reporter=EU27_2020&partner=EXT_EU27_2020&flow=1&indicators=VALUE_IN_EUROS&indicators=QUANTITY_IN_100KG&product=290122&sinceTimePeriod=2025-08
- https://data-api.ecb.europa.eu/service/data/EXR/M.USD.EUR.SP00.A?format=csvdata&startPeriod=2025-08&endPeriod=2026-10
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/files/v1/app/reference/HS.json
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