What is Vinyl Chloride Market Analysis: Price Trend, Trade Data and PVC Demand
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Latest published month (2026-07) — Sentiment: Neutral
The most recent published customs observation for HS 290321 is 2026-07 at USD 703.22/ton, -7.7% against the previous month and +2.1% against 2025-08.
Reported volume across the fixed 2-economy panel was 1,481,185 tonnes over the window, 123,432 tonnes a month on average, and the three-month trend is -1.6%.
Next 1–3 Months — Outlook
This page is refreshed from public customs statistics rather than paid price assessments, so the next revision will roll in each newly published month for HS 290321. Direction shown here is a reading of published customs unit values, not a forecast.
Key Market Impact
Customs unit values for this heading are the single most checkable price signal available without a subscription: they combine the product mix actually crossing borders, the average contract level behind those shipments and freight-relevant volume. Treat them as the trade-weighted baseline for the heading, and read the coverage note above before applying them to a single grade.
How About the Price?
Data source: UN Comtrade public trade statistics (https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202607&cmdCode=290321&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true) | Last updated: 2026-11-06
Price Trajectory, latest 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07)
The monthly customs export unit value for HS 290321 moved from USD 688.89/ton in 2025-08 to USD 703.22/ton in 2026-07 (+2.1% across the window). The window high was USD 825.01/ton in 2026-04 and the low USD 647.40/ton in 2025-11. Three-month averages put the latest quarter -1.6% against the previous one, which is classified here as neutral.
The same panel reported USD 1,072.4 million of export value on 1,481,185 tonnes over the twelve months, an average of 123,432 tonnes a month. Values are customs returns for the stated HS heading, so they capture the traded mix of that heading rather than a single quoted grade.
The EU side of the same heading is one month fresher than the panel above: Eurostat Comext records EU27 imports of HS 290321 from outside the EU at USD 805.59/ton in 2026-08 (EUR 694.89/ton at the ECB monthly reference rate), +4.0% against 2026-07, on 10,551 tonnes; the twelve months to 2026-08 totalled 64,161 tonnes. On the 10 months the two datasets share (2025-08 to 2026-07), three-month blocks that far apart moved +6.5% on the export panel and +27.5% on the EU import side, so the two agree on direction. Import values are recorded on a CIF-type basis by a single bloc, so the level is not comparable with the export panel — the comparison above is directional.
2026-08 is deliberately not in the series: of the 2 economies that make up this page's fixed panel, 1 had filed both value and net weight for this heading when the page was rebuilt on 2026-11-06 (the heading drew 5 filers in total that month); neither 2026-09 nor 2026-10 drew a single filing for this heading. Splicing a partly-filed month onto a fixed panel would move the unit value through composition alone, so the window stays at 2026-07 until the whole panel for 2026-08 has reported.
HS 290321 carries vinyl chloride (chloroethylene) only, so the series is product-level; almost all VCM is converted to PVC at the same site, so reported trade is the merchant balance between chlor-alkali and PVC complexes rather than world output.
Supply-side factors
- Fixed reporting panel of 2 economies: NLD (528), USA (842). The panel is held constant in every month of the window so month-to-month movement is not a composition effect.
- Monthly unit value range over the window: USD 647.40 to USD 825.01/ton.
- Latest month, 2026-07: USD 703.22/ton, -7.7% against the previous month, on 139,495 tonnes.
Demand-side factors
- Vinyl chloride is a captive intermediate: demand is PVC demand, and PVC demand is construction, pipe, profile and flooring. Merchant VCM therefore moves when a PVC producer is short of EDC or when chlor-alkali economics push chlorine into VCM instead of into other chlorinated products.
- Related market pages on this site: Ethylene Dichloride (the cracking feedstock), Chlorine (the chlor-alkali co-feed), Ethylene (the hydrocarbon feed into EDC), Ethylene Oxide (the other chlorine-free outlet on the same ethylene chain).
Basis: these are customs unit values for the stated HS heading, not quoted spot, contract or assessed prices, and no paid price assessment is used or redistributed on this page. Every figure can be re-checked at the API links listed at the end of this page.
Need the supplier landscape, contract structure or a delivered-cost build-up behind this heading? Request a sample report or a custom cut.
Substitutes & Alternatives
| Substitute | Replacement Scenario / How It Substitutes |
|---|---|
| Vinylidene chloride (VDC, 1,1-dichloroethylene) | Used as a comonomer or alternative monomer in barrier packaging films and coatings (e.g., Saran/PVDC). In applications requiring high oxygen and moisture barrier properties, PVDC can replace PVC-based films. Requires a different polymerization process; not a drop-in monomer replacement but a functional end-use substitute. |
| Ethylene (for polyethylene, PE) | In rigid and flexible packaging, pipes, and profiles, high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and other PE grades substitute for PVC. PE pipes are widely used as a chlorine-free alternative to PVC pipes in water distribution and gas supply. Requires different compounding and processing equipment; a material-level substitution rather than a monomer-level one. |
| Propylene (for polypropylene, PP) | Polypropylene replaces PVC in rigid applications such as pipes, fittings, automotive parts, and packaging where chemical resistance and lower density are valued. PP is increasingly preferred in medical devices and food-contact applications due to regulatory pressure on PVC plasticizers. Requires reformulation of the end product. |
| Styrene (for ABS or PS) | In rigid consumer goods, electronics housings, and construction profiles, ABS and polystyrene can substitute for rigid PVC. These alternatives avoid chlorine-containing polymers and are preferred where halogen-free requirements apply (e.g., certain EU RoHS-compliant electronics). Requires redesign of parts and processing conditions. |
| Bio-based or recycled PVC (same polymer, different feedstock) | Bio-ethylene derived from sugarcane ethanol can be used to produce bio-based EDC and VCM, yielding chemically identical PVC with a lower carbon footprint. This is a feedstock-level substitution for fossil-derived VCM, not a different polymer. Partial replacement is commercially practiced by some producers (e.g., Braskem-linked initiatives). |
| Thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) | In flexible applications such as wire and cable insulation, hoses, medical tubing, and footwear, TPU substitutes for plasticized PVC (flexible PVC). TPU offers better abrasion resistance and avoids phthalate plasticizers. Substitution requires reformulation and typically increases material cost; used where performance or regulatory requirements justify the premium. |
| Cross-linked polyethylene (PEX) | In plumbing, radiant heating, and hot-water pipe applications, PEX directly competes with and increasingly replaces PVC and CPVC piping. PEX offers better flexibility and temperature resistance. This is an end-use substitution; the two materials are processed and installed differently but serve the same function. |
Related PetroApex Market Pages
- Ethylene Dichloride
- Ethylene
- Chlorine
- Ethylene Oxide — the other chlorine-free outlet on the same ethylene chain.
Regulatory Status
| Region | Regulation / Policy Name | Issuing Authority | Year (enacted or latest revision) | Key Requirement / Threshold | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Vinyl Chloride Emission Standard | EPA | 1976 | Limit emissions from VCM production facilities; set residual monomer levels in PVC resins; apply to air and water emissions | EPA |
| US | OSHA Standard 1910.1017 | OSHA | 1974 (latest revision) | PEL-TWA: 1 ppm (8-hour average); PEL-STEL: 5 ppm (15 minutes); Action level: 0.5 ppm (8-hour TWA) | OSHA |
| US | TSCA Risk Evaluation | EPA | 2025 (draft scope); high-priority designation 2024 | Ongoing risk evaluation to determine unreasonable risk; requires conditions of use, exposure, hazard assessment | EPA |
| US | TSCA Section 8(d) Health and Safety Reporting | EPA | 2025 (extensions) | Manufacturers/importers must report unpublished health and safety studies | EPA |
| US | DOT Hazardous Materials Regulations | DOT/PHMSA | 49 CFR 172.101 (current) | UN Number: 1086; Proper shipping name: Vinyl chloride, stabilized; Hazard class: 2.1 | DOT/PHMSA |
| EU | REACH Regulation / SVHC List | ECHA | 2006 (current) | Classification as SVHC if CMR Category 1A/1B (carcinogen); no specific numerical threshold | ECHA |
| Global | Minamata Convention on Mercury | UNEP | 2013 (entered into force 2017) | Minimize/reduce mercury use in VCM production; 50% reduction by 2020; phase-out after mercury-free catalysts proven feasible and economical | Minamata Convention |
Key Influence Events
Vinyl chloride (also known as vinyl chloride monomer, VCM, or chloroethylene) is a colorless, flammable gas with the chemical formula CH2=CHCl and CAS number 75-01-4. It is one of the most important industrial chemicals in the world, produced in quantities exceeding 40 million metric tons per year globally. Its primary use—accounting for over 95% of production—is as the monomer for polyvinyl chloride (PVC), one of the most widely used thermoplastic polymers. Vinyl chloride is classified as a Group 1 human carcinogen by the IARC and is handled under strict occupational and environmental regulations. It is stored and transported as a liquefied gas under moderate pressure.
Top Countries Production Capacity
Production Process of Vinyl Chloride Market Analysis: Price Trend, Trade Data and PVC Demand
Vinyl chloride (also known as vinyl chloride monomer, VCM, or chloroethylene) is a colorless, flammable gas with the chemical formula CH2=CHCl and CAS number 75-01-4. It is one of the most important industrial chemicals in the world, produced in quantities exceeding 40 million metric tons per year globally. Its primary use—accounting for over 95% of production—is as the monomer for polyvinyl chloride (PVC), one of the most widely used thermoplastic polymers. Vinyl chloride is classified as a Group 1 human carcinogen by the IARC and is handled under strict occupational and environmental regulations. It is stored and transported as a liquefied gas under moderate pressure.
Specs & Grades
| Property | Typical Value / Range | Unit | Grade / Note |
|---|
Data Sources
Price and volume figures are derived from the directly verified public sources below. The customs unit values are USD/ton and are not subscription price assessments. Grade-level specifications are not restated here: confirm them with the supplier. Every monthly endpoint used for the series on this page is listed below, together with the EU cross-check, the exchange rate used to express it in dollars and the HS classification reference.
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202508&cmdCode=290321&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202509&cmdCode=290321&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202510&cmdCode=290321&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202511&cmdCode=290321&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202512&cmdCode=290321&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202601&cmdCode=290321&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202602&cmdCode=290321&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202603&cmdCode=290321&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202604&cmdCode=290321&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202605&cmdCode=290321&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202606&cmdCode=290321&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202607&cmdCode=290321&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?format=JSON&freq=M&reporter=EU27_2020&partner=EXT_EU27_2020&flow=1&indicators=VALUE_IN_EUROS&indicators=QUANTITY_IN_100KG&product=290321&sinceTimePeriod=2025-08
- https://data-api.ecb.europa.eu/service/data/EXR/M.USD.EUR.SP00.A?format=csvdata&startPeriod=2025-08&endPeriod=2026-10
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/files/v1/app/reference/HS.json
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