HomePetro ProductDiesel Market Analysis: Price Trend, Capacity and Trade Data

Diesel Market Analysis: Price Trend, Capacity and Trade Data

Diesel fuel (also called diesel oil or gas oil) is a petroleum-derived liquid fuel composed primarily of hydrocarbons in the C10–C22 carbon number range, obtained mainly by the fractional distillation of crude oil in the atmospheric distillation unit, typically boiling between approximately 150°C and 380°C. It is used as the primary fuel for compression-ignition (diesel) engines, which ignite the fuel through the heat generated by compressing air rather than by a spark. Diesel fuel is characterized by its cetane number (a measure of ignition quality), energy density, viscosity, sulfur content, and cold-flow properties. It is widely used in road transport (trucks, buses, cars), rail, marine, agricultural, construction, and stationary power generation applications. Modern diesel fuels are increasingly ultra-low sulfur grades (ULSD) to meet stringent environmental regulations, and may contain biodiesel blends (FAME) as a renewable component.

How About the Price?

Diesel Market Analysis: Price Trend, Capacity and Trade Data Price History (USD/ton)
Period Price (USD/ton) Change Change Rate
2026-06 1096.52 -119.02 -9.79%
2026-05 1215.54 22.38 1.88%
2026-04 1193.16 184.32 18.27%
2026-03 1008.84 201.43 24.95%
2026-02 807.41 46.69 6.14%
2026-01 760.72 5.61 0.74%
2025-12 755.11 -27.27 -3.49%
2025-11 782.38 128.78 19.7%
2025-10 653.6 -8.51 -1.29%
2025-09 662.11 11 1.69%
2025-08 651.11 -154.48 -19.18%
2025-07 805.59 0 0%

Key Influence Events

Key Events Influencing Diesel Market Analysis: Price Trend, Capacity and Trade Data Market
Time Factor Description Source
2025-07 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 271019 export unit value USD 806/ton. Panel value USD 17,357.8 million on 21,546,565 tonnes across the fixed 15-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202507&cmdCode=271019&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2025-08 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 271019 export unit value USD 651/ton, -19.2% against the previous month. Panel value USD 16,770.0 million on 25,756,143 tonnes across the fixed 15-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202508&cmdCode=271019&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2025-09 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 271019 export unit value USD 662/ton, +1.7% against the previous month. Panel value USD 17,509.1 million on 26,444,428 tonnes across the fixed 15-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202509&cmdCode=271019&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2025-10 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 271019 export unit value USD 654/ton, -1.3% against the previous month. Panel value USD 15,999.1 million on 24,478,489 tonnes across the fixed 15-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202510&cmdCode=271019&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2025-11 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 271019 export unit value USD 782/ton, +19.7% against the previous month. Panel value USD 16,351.5 million on 20,899,614 tonnes across the fixed 15-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202511&cmdCode=271019&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2025-12 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 271019 export unit value USD 755/ton, -3.5% against the previous month. Panel value USD 17,215.1 million on 22,798,114 tonnes across the fixed 15-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202512&cmdCode=271019&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2026-01 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 271019 export unit value USD 761/ton, +0.7% against the previous month. Panel value USD 16,171.0 million on 21,257,512 tonnes across the fixed 15-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202601&cmdCode=271019&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2026-02 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 271019 export unit value USD 807/ton, +6.1% against the previous month. Panel value USD 15,162.7 million on 18,779,427 tonnes across the fixed 15-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202602&cmdCode=271019&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2026-03 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 271019 export unit value USD 1,009/ton, +24.9% against the previous month. Panel value USD 22,741.5 million on 22,542,259 tonnes across the fixed 15-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202603&cmdCode=271019&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2026-04 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 271019 export unit value USD 1,193/ton, +18.3% against the previous month. Panel value USD 31,766.7 million on 26,624,070 tonnes across the fixed 15-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202604&cmdCode=271019&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2026-05 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 271019 export unit value USD 1,216/ton, +1.9% against the previous month. Panel value USD 29,737.7 million on 24,464,479 tonnes across the fixed 15-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202605&cmdCode=271019&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
2026-06 Trade price Monthly customs data: HS 271019 export unit value USD 1,097/ton, -9.8% against the previous month. Panel value USD 23,737.4 million on 21,648,075 tonnes across the fixed 15-economy panel. https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578&period=202606&cmdCode=271019&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true

Data source: UN Comtrade monthly trade statistics (https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?period=202606&cmdCode=271019&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true) | Last updated: 2026-09-24

Price Trajectory, latest 12 months (2025-07 to 2026-06)

The monthly customs export unit value for HS 271019 moved from USD 806/ton in 2025-07 to USD 1,097/ton in 2026-06 (+36.1% across the window). The window high was USD 1,216/ton in 2026-05 and the low USD 651/ton in 2025-08. Three-month averages put the latest quarter +36.0% against the previous one, which is classified here as bullish.

The same panel reported USD 240,519.7 million of export value on 277,239,175 tonnes over the twelve months, an average of 23,103,265 tonnes a month. These are customs returns for the stated HS heading, so they capture the traded mix of that heading rather than a single quoted grade.

Supply-side factors

  • Fixed reporting panel of 15 economies: BRA, CZE, DNK, DEU, HUN, IRL, MYS, MEX, NLD, POL, PRT, IND, SWE, EGY, USA. The panel is constant in every month of the window, so month-to-month movement is not a composition effect.
  • Monthly unit value range over the window: USD 651 to USD 1,216/ton.
  • Latest month, 2026-06: USD 1,097/ton, -9.8% against the previous month, on 21,648,075 tonnes.

Demand-side factors

  • COVID-19 lockdowns collapsing diesel transportation and industrial demand (2020 Q1–Q2).
  • Seasonal heating oil and diesel demand peaks in winter and agriculture/construction in summer (annually recurring).
  • Gradual recovery of diesel demand with easing of COVID restrictions and industrial activity (mid-2020 to early 2021).
  • Ongoing demand uncertainty and volatility due to geopolitical tensions (2022–2023).
  • Long-term demand moderation due to renewable diesel blending reducing conventional diesel volumes by ~1-2% annually (2025 onward).

Related market pages on this site: Crude Oil, Gasoline, Kerosene, Naphtha market analysis.

Basis: these are customs unit values for the stated HS heading, not quoted spot, contract or assessed prices, and no paid price assessment is used or redistributed on this page. Every figure can be re-checked at the API links listed at the end of this page. Coverage note: HS 271019 is the residual line for petroleum oils other than crude and other than light oils; gas oil/diesel sits in it alongside kerosene-type jet fuel, fuel oil and lubricants.

Top Countries Production Capacity

Average Diesel Market Analysis: Price Trend, Capacity and Trade Data Capacity by Country/Region in 2025 (tons/year)
Rank Country / Region Average Annual Production (tons/year)
Global Total1109659271
1 United States 240506000
2 China 199456000
3 India 121247000
4 Saudi Arabia 58436892
5 South Korea 46984000
6 Germany 40831000
7 Japan 37007000
8 Canada 33950000
9 Italy 28646000
10 Spain 24922000
11 Thailand 22491000
12 France 19335000
13 Turkey 17306000
14 Indonesia 17251000
PropertyTypical Value / RangeUnitGrade / Standard Reference
Cetane Number51 – 55 (min 51)EN 590 (Europe), ASTM D975
Density at 15°C820 – 845kg/m³EN 590
Distillation T95max 360°CEN 590
Viscosity at 40°C2.0 – 4.5mm²/s (cSt)EN 590 / ASTM D975 Grade 2-D
Sulfur Content (ULSD)max 10 (EU), max 15 (US)mg/kg (ppm)EN 590 / EPA ULSD
Flash Pointmin 55°CEN 590
Cold Filter Plugging Point (CFPP)–5 to –44 (climate-dependent grade)°CEN 590 Classes A–F
Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH)max 8% m/mEN 590
FAME Content (biodiesel blend)up to 7 (B7)% v/vEN 590
Lubricity (HFRR wear scar)max 460µmEN 590
Water Contentmax 200mg/kgEN 590
Ash Contentmax 0.01% m/mASTM D975
Commercial Grades
1-D (ASTM D975)Lighter, lower viscosity; cold-weather useASTM D975 Grade 1-D S15/S500
2-D (ASTM D975)Standard road diesel; most common gradeASTM D975 Grade 2-D S15/S500
4-D (ASTM D975)Heavy-duty, low-speed engines; high viscosityASTM D975 Grade 4-D
EN 590 Class A–FEuropean grades differentiated by CFPP for climate zonesEN 590 (Europe)
Marine Gas Oil (MGO / DMA)Distillate marine fuel, max 0.1% S in ECA zonesISO 8217 DMA/DMB/DMZ
Premium DieselEnhanced cetane, detergent additives, improved cold flowVarious proprietary (Shell V-Power Diesel, BP Ultimate, etc.)

Data Sources

Price, volume and capacity figures on this page are computed from the public sources listed below; no subscription assessment data is used or redistributed.

Who are the Top Players?

CompanyHeadquartersKey Facilities
ExxonMobilIrving, Texas, USABeaumont TX, Baytown TX, Baton Rouge LA, Joliet IL, Jurong Island Singapore
ShellThe Hague, NetherlandsPernis Rotterdam, Norco LA, Deer Park TX, Sarnia Ontario, Pulau Bukom Singapore
BPLondon, UKWhiting IN, Cherry Point WA, Castellon Spain, Castellon Spain
ChevronSan Ramon, California, USARichmond CA, El Segundo CA, Pasadena TX, Pascagoula MS, Salt Lake City UT
Reliance IndustriesMumbai, Maharashtra, IndiaJamnagar Gujarat
SinopecBeijing, ChinaQingdao Shandong, Zhenhai Zhejiang, Anqing Anhui, Maoming Guangdong, Beijing Yanshan
Marathon PetroleumFindlay, Ohio, USAGalveston Bay TX, Garyville LA, Detroit MI, Canton OH, Catlettsburg KY, Anacortes WA
Valero EnergySan Antonio, Texas, USATexas City TX, Corpus Christi TX, Port Arthur TX, Norco LA, St. Charles LA, Memphis TN, Ardmore OK, Wilmington CA, Benicia CA
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