What is Isobutene Market Analysis: Price Trend, Trade Data and Butyl Rubber and MTBE Demand
Analysts Sentiment
Bullish
Neutral
Bearish
What's driving sentiment this week:
Latest published month (2026-07) — Sentiment: Bullish
The most recent published customs observation for HS 290123 is 2026-07 at USD 1,221.63/ton, -8.0% against the previous month and +9.7% against 2025-08.
Reported volume across the fixed 4-economy panel was 213,547 tonnes over the window, 17,796 tonnes a month on average, and the three-month trend is +11.0%.
Next 1–3 Months — Outlook
This page is refreshed from public customs statistics rather than paid price assessments, so the next revision will roll in each newly published month for HS 290123. Direction shown here is a reading of published customs unit values, not a forecast.
Key Market Impact
Customs unit values for this heading are the single most checkable price signal available without a subscription: they combine the product mix actually crossing borders, the average contract level behind those shipments and freight-relevant volume. Treat them as the trade-weighted baseline for the heading, and read the coverage note above before applying them to a single grade.
How About the Price?
Data source: UN Comtrade public trade statistics (https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202607&cmdCode=290123&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true) | Last updated: 2026-11-01
Price Trajectory, latest 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07)
The monthly customs export unit value for HS 290123 moved from USD 1,113.78/ton in 2025-08 to USD 1,221.63/ton in 2026-07 (+9.7% across the window). The window high was USD 1,327.55/ton in 2026-06 and the low USD 1,014.68/ton in 2026-02. Three-month averages put the latest quarter +11.0% against the previous one, which is classified here as bullish.
The same panel reported USD 248.2 million of export value on 213,547 tonnes over the twelve months, an average of 17,796 tonnes a month. Values are customs returns for the stated HS heading, so they capture the traded mix of that heading rather than a single quoted grade.
The EU side of the same heading gives a volume check rather than a price: Eurostat Comext records EU27 imports of HS 290123 from outside the EU at 22 tonnes in 2026-07 and 1,756 tonnes over the twelve months to 2026-07. Monthly consignments at that size are too small for a unit value to mean anything, so no EU import price is published here.
2026-08 is deliberately not in the series: of the 4 economies that make up this page's fixed panel, 2 had filed both value and net weight for this heading when the page was rebuilt on 2026-11-01, while the heading drew 7 filers in total that month; 2026-09 drew 0 filings for this heading, 0 of them from panel members, and 2026-10 drew 0 (0 from the panel). Splicing a partly-filed month onto a fixed panel would move the unit value through composition alone, so the window stays at 2026-07 until the whole panel for 2026-08 has reported.
HS 290123 bundles isobutene with butene-1 and butene-2 in one heading, so customs data cannot isolate the branched isomer; the n-butene page on this site uses the same heading, and the ethers, butyl rubber and polyisobutylene made from isobutene are classified outside it.
Supply-side factors
- Fixed reporting panel of 4 economies: BRA (76), NLD (528), SWE (752), USA (842). The panel is held constant in every month of the window so month-to-month movement is not a composition effect.
- Monthly unit value range over the window: USD 1,014.68 to USD 1,327.55/ton.
- Latest month, 2026-07: USD 1,221.63/ton, -8.0% against the previous month, on 19,039 tonnes.
Demand-side factors
- Isobutene is consumed almost entirely captive: etherification to MTBE and ETBE, polymerisation to butyl rubber and polyisobutylene, and conversion to methacrylates and antioxidants, so merchant trade reflects only the surplus of integrated C4 complexes and spikes when a unit is short.
- Related market pages on this site: n-Butene (the isomer sharing this heading), MTBE (the largest single outlet), Mixed C4 (the C4 feed behind on-purpose isobutene).
Basis: these are customs unit values for the stated HS heading, not quoted spot, contract or assessed prices, and no paid price assessment is used or redistributed on this page. Every figure can be re-checked at the API links listed at the end of this page.
Need the supplier landscape, contract structure or a delivered-cost build-up behind this heading? Request a sample report or a custom cut.
Substitutes & Alternatives
| Substitute | Replacement Scenario / How It Substitutes |
|---|---|
| 1-Butene | In polymerization applications (e.g., as a comonomer in polyethylene production), 1-butene can partially substitute isobutene where branching requirements are less strict. It is not a drop-in replacement for applications requiring the tertiary carbon structure of isobutene (e.g., butyl rubber), but is used interchangeably in some alkylation feedstocks. |
| 2-Butene (cis and trans) | In refinery alkylation units producing isooctane (alkylate gasoline), 2-butenes can substitute isobutene as the olefin feed reacted with isobutane over acid catalysts. The alkylate octane number differs slightly, but 2-butenes are a practical and common alternative feedstock in the same unit. |
| Propylene | In the production of certain antioxidants and fuel additives, propylene-based alkylation products (e.g., propylene oligomers) can substitute isobutene-derived alkylphenol antioxidants in some lubricant and fuel additive formulations, though performance profiles differ and reformulation is required. |
| Isoamylenes (C5 olefins) | In MTBE/ETBE production, isoamylenes (2-methyl-1-butene and 2-methyl-2-butene) from FCC C5 streams can react with methanol or ethanol to form TAME (tert-amyl methyl ether) or TAEE, which serve as direct octane-boosting fuel oxygenate substitutes for MTBE derived from isobutene. This is a partial substitution in the fuel blending context. |
| Ethylene / Propylene (for PIB substitution) | In sealant, adhesive, and lubricant additive applications where polyisobutylene (PIB) is used, ethylene-propylene copolymers (EPM/EPDM) or polyalphaolefins (PAO) can substitute PIB in viscosity modification and sealant roles, though they require reformulation and do not replicate PIB's gas-barrier properties. |
| Tert-Butyl Alcohol (TBA) | TBA can serve as a direct chemical precursor substitute for isobutene in several downstream syntheses (e.g., production of methacrolein, methacrylic acid, or MTBE), since TBA readily dehydrates to isobutene in situ under acid catalysis. In some process designs, TBA is the preferred feedstock rather than gaseous isobutene for handling and safety reasons. |
| Styrene / Divinylbenzene (for butyl rubber substitution) | In certain sealing and damping applications (automotive, pharmaceutical stoppers), styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) or EPDM can partially substitute butyl rubber (isobutene-isoprene copolymer) where the extreme gas impermeability of butyl rubber is not the primary requirement. This substitution requires significant product redesign and is only partial. |
Related PetroApex Market Pages
Regulatory Status
| Region | Regulation / Policy Name | Issuing Authority | Year (enacted or latest revision) | Key Requirement / Threshold | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | NSPS Subpart Kc - Standards of Performance for Volatile Organic Liquid Storage Vessels Including Petroleum | US EPA | 2024 (finalized; applicable to construction/modification/reconstruction after 2023) | Storage vessels >=20,000 gallons (75.7 m³) with maximum true vapor pressure (MTVP) >=3.4 kPa (0.5 psia) for vessels >40,000 gallons or >=10.3 kPa (1.5 psia) for 20,000-40,000 gallons require 98% VOC control via floating roof with dual seals or closed vent system; general applicability reporting threshold 1.7 kPa; LEL monitoring and roof inspections required for affected facilities | US EPA (https://www.epa.gov/stationary-sources-air-pollution/volatile-organic-liquid-storage-vessels-including-petroleum; 40 CFR 60 Subpart Kc) |
| United States | Occupational Safety and Health Standards - Flammable Liquids (29 CFR 1910.106) | OSHA | 1971 (with revisions; isobutene treated as flammable liquid with flashpoint <=93°C) | Category 1 flammable liquid (flashpoint <23°C); storage/handling of Category 1-2 or Category 3 with flashpoint <100°F requires storage in closed containers or above-ground tanks outside buildings; separation distances 25 feet from tanks for loading/unloading; general standards apply to flammable liquid handling and storage | OSHA (http://www.osha.gov/laws-regs/regulations/standardnumber/1910/1910.106) |
| United States | UN Number / Hazard Classification - Isobutylene (UN 1055, Flammable Gas) | DOT / UN | Current (UN model regulations; US DOT alignment) | UN number 1055; hazard class 2.1 (flammable gas); packing group not assigned; requires proper shipping name ISOBUTYLENE; applies to transport by road, rail, sea (IMDG), air (IATA) | CAMEO Chemicals / DOT (https://cameochemicals.noaa.gov/chemical/3667; SDS references) |
| European Union | REACH Regulation - Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals | ECHA | 2007 (ongoing registration; tonnage-based requirements) | Registration required for manufacture/import >=1 tonne/year; for >=10 tonnes/year a Chemical Safety Assessment (CSA) and Chemical Safety Report (CSR) must be submitted; low acute toxicity and low carcinogenic potential confirmed for isobutylene (CAS 115-11-7) with no specific restrictions or classification triggers | ECHA REACH (general guidance and substance evaluation; OECD SIDS summary for CAS 115-11-7) |
| China | Emission Standard of Pollutants for Petroleum Refining Industry | Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) | 2015 (enacted; latest referenced version) | Ceiling values for air and water pollutants in petroleum refining operations; special limits for new facilities (e.g., >=97% removal efficiency for certain end-of-pipe controls); fugitive emission controls required for VOCs and other pollutants | Ministry of Ecology and Environment (https://english.mee.gov.cn/Resources/standards/Air_Environment/Emission_standard1/201605/t20160511_337511.shtml; GB 31570-2015) |
Key Influence Events
Isobutene (also called isobutylene, 2-methylpropene, CAS 115-11-7) is a branched-chain alkene with the molecular formula C4H8. It is a colorless, flammable gas at ambient conditions (boiling point −6.9 °C) with a faint petroleum-like odor. Isobutene is one of the four butene isomers and is a key petrochemical building block. Its highly reactive double bond makes it valuable for producing methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), tert-butyl alcohol (TBA), polyisobutylene (PIB), isooctane (alkylate), butyl rubber, methacrolein/methacrylic acid, and antioxidants such as BHT. It is produced primarily as a co-product of steam cracking of naphtha or LPG, from catalytic cracking (FCC) C4 streams, or by dehydrogenation of isobutane.
Top Countries Production Capacity
Production Process of Isobutene Market Analysis: Price Trend, Trade Data and Butyl Rubber and MTBE Demand
Isobutene (also called isobutylene, 2-methylpropene, CAS 115-11-7) is a branched-chain alkene with the molecular formula C4H8. It is a colorless, flammable gas at ambient conditions (boiling point −6.9 °C) with a faint petroleum-like odor. Isobutene is one of the four butene isomers and is a key petrochemical building block. Its highly reactive double bond makes it valuable for producing methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), tert-butyl alcohol (TBA), polyisobutylene (PIB), isooctane (alkylate), butyl rubber, methacrolein/methacrylic acid, and antioxidants such as BHT. It is produced primarily as a co-product of steam cracking of naphtha or LPG, from catalytic cracking (FCC) C4 streams, or by dehydrogenation of isobutane.
Specs & Grades
| Property | Typical Value / Range | Unit | Grade / Note |
|---|
Data Sources
Price and volume figures are derived from the directly verified public sources below. The customs unit values are USD/ton and are not subscription price assessments. Grade-level specifications are not restated here: confirm them with the supplier. Every monthly endpoint used for the series on this page is listed below, together with the EU cross-check, the exchange rate used to express it in dollars and the HS classification reference.
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202508&cmdCode=290123&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202509&cmdCode=290123&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202510&cmdCode=290123&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202511&cmdCode=290123&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202512&cmdCode=290123&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202601&cmdCode=290123&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202602&cmdCode=290123&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202603&cmdCode=290123&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202604&cmdCode=290123&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202605&cmdCode=290123&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202606&cmdCode=290123&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=156,842,699,410,276,528,356,360,764,458,724,40,56,251,380,616,826,124,76,484,792,682,784,704,490,702,643,36,710,818,364,203,348,300,620,372,208,246,752,578,320,508&period=202607&cmdCode=290123&partnerCode=0&flowCode=X&includeDesc=true
- https://comtradeapi.un.org/files/v1/app/reference/HS.json
- Eurostat Comext DS-045409, EU27 extra-EU imports, monthly: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?format=JSON&freq=M&reporter=EU27_2020&partner=EXT_EU27_2020&flow=1&indicators=VALUE_IN_EUROS&indicators=QUANTITY_IN_100KG&product=290123&sinceTimePeriod=2025-09
- ECB euro reference rate, monthly average (EXR/M.USD.EUR.SP00.A): https://data-api.ecb.europa.eu/service/data/EXR/M.USD.EUR.SP00.A?format=csvdata&startPeriod=2025-09&endPeriod=2026-09
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